Value bet: Neftchi Baku to win @ 3.85 – our chance 29% vs 26% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultQarabag to win ✗45% · @1.85
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.06
Neftchi Baku vs Qarabag: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Neftchi Baku welcome Qarabag to Palms Sports Arena for a Premyer Liqa fixture on Thursday 30 April (17:00 WAT). In the table, Neftchi Baku are 1st, leading the league, on 24 points after 11 matches; Qarabag are 4th (among the top four) with 19.
Current form
Neftchi Baku, last 5: DWWWL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Zira, away. The attack is flying at 2.5 goals per game.
Qarabag, last 5: LWDLW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Sabah FA, away. Scoring is no problem – 3.3 a game lately.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Neftchi Baku 1.4 xG, Qarabag 1.4 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 57%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Neftchi Baku 29%, draw 25%, Qarabag 45%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: Neftchi Baku to win @3.85 – the bookmaker implies 26%, our ratings say 29%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (75%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Neftchi Baku 1–1 Qarabag. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Neftchi Baku29%fair 3.40 · @3.85
Draw25%fair 3.96 · @3.35
Qarabag45%fair 2.20 · @1.85
2.74Expected goals
1.37Neftchi Baku xG
1.37Qarabag xG
57%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–09%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–06%
From our goals model: Neftchi Baku 1.4 – 1.4 Qarabag expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Qarabag to win✗
45%
2.20
1.85
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.74
1.67
Draw no bet
Qarabag (draw no bet)✗
61%
1.65
–
Asian handicap
Qarabag +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.93
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.35
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
–
First team to score
Neftchi Baku to score first
47%
2.14
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.39
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Neftchi Baku / FT Neftchi Baku✗
22%
4.63
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.06
–
Recent results
Neftchi Baku – last 6
DWWWLD
17 Apr
@ Zira
1–1
D
5 Apr
@ Sumqayıt
3–1
W
20 Mar
vs Imisli FK
6–0
W
15 Mar
@ Qabala
3–1
W
9 Mar
vs Turan
0–1
L
28 Feb
@ Keshla FC
2–2
D
2.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Qarabag – last 6
LWDLWW
22 Apr
@ Sabah FA
1–2
L
6 Apr
vs Karvan
8–0
W
3 Apr
vs Sabah FA
2–2
D
20 Mar
@ Kapaz
0–1
L
8 Mar
vs Araz
6–0
W
4 Mar
vs Keshla FC
3–1
W
3.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Neftchi Baku and Qarabag.
What is the prediction for Neftchi Baku vs Qarabag?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Neftchi Baku vs Qarabag?
On our numbers Neftchi Baku have a 29% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Qarabag 45%.
How many goals will there be in Neftchi Baku vs Qarabag?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Neftchi Baku vs Qarabag?
Our predicted score is Neftchi Baku 1–1 Qarabag, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Neftchi Baku vs Qarabag?
Neftchi Baku vs Qarabag (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Thursday 30 April 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Palms Sports Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
