Sumqayıt 50%Draw 25%Qabala 25%Expected goals 1.64 – 0.95
68%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.48 · bookmaker 1.47 · Lost ✗
7/10Rating
1.47Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 52% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultSumqayıt to win ✗50% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.16
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.43
Sumqayıt vs Qabala: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Friday 20 February the Premyer Liqa brings Sumqayıt against Qabala at Mehdi Huseynzade Stadium. Kick-off: 16:30 WAT. In the table, Sumqayıt are 9th, lower half, on 10 points after 10 matches; Qabala are 10th (in the drop zone) with 8. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sumqayıt 1.6 xG, Qabala 0.9 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 52%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sumqayıt 50%, draw 25%, Qabala 25%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 2.10.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.10 – the bookmaker implies 48%, our ratings say 52%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (68%, odds 1.47). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sumqayıt 1–1 Qabala. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sumqayıt50%fair 2.00 · @2.15
Draw25%fair 4.04 · @3.00
Qabala25%fair 3.94 · @3.10
2.59Expected goals
1.64Sumqayıt xG
0.95Qabala xG
52%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–012%
1–112%
2–010%
2–110%
0–07%
0–17%
From our goals model: Sumqayıt 1.6 – 0.9 Qabala expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sumqayıt to win✗
50%
2.00
2.15 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
75%
1.33
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.91
2.10 ▲
Draw no bet
Sumqayıt (draw no bet)
66%
1.51
–
Asian handicap
Qabala +1 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
68%
1.48
1.47
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.75
1.47
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.16
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
–
First team to score
Sumqayıt to score first✗
59%
1.70
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.36
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sumqayıt / FT Sumqayıt✗
33%
3.05
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.43
–
Recent results
Sumqayıt – last 1
L
15 Feb
@ Araz
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Qabala – last 1
L
16 Feb
vs Sabah FA
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sumqayıt and Qabala.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.47.
Who will win Sumqayıt vs Qabala?
On our numbers Sumqayıt have a 50% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Qabala 25%.
How many goals will there be in Sumqayıt vs Qabala?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sumqayıt vs Qabala?
Our predicted score is Sumqayıt 1–1 Qabala, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Sumqayıt vs Qabala?
Sumqayıt vs Qabala (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Friday 20 February 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Mehdi Huseynzade Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
