Good pick · fair odds 1.60 · bookmaker 1.53 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.53Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.30 – our chance 51% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultQarabag to win ✓71% · @1.15
Double chanceQarabag or draw ✓88% · @1.01
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.30
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.26
Qarabag vs Araz: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Qarabag welcome Araz to Azersun Arena for a Premyer Liqa fixture on Sunday 8 March (16:15 WAT). In the table, Qarabag are 4th, among the top four, on 19 points after 10 matches; Araz are 12th (in the drop zone) with 4. There are 15 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Qarabag, last 5: WDLLW Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Keshla FC, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game.
Araz, last 3: LWW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Zira, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Araz, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.4 for Qarabag.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Qarabag 2.2 xG, Araz 0.8 xG – a total near 3.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 59% and GG at 51%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Qarabag 71%, draw 17%, Araz 12%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.30.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.30 – the bookmaker implies 43%, our ratings say 51%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (62%, odds 1.53). Most likely score in line with that pick: Qarabag 2–0 Araz. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Qarabag71%fair 1.41 · @1.15
Draw17%fair 5.84 · @6.00
Araz12%fair 8.26 · @16.00
3.03Expected goals
2.18Qarabag xG
0.84Araz xG
51%Both score
59%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–012%
1–011%
2–110%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Qarabag 2.2 – 0.8 Araz expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Qarabag to win✓
71%
1.41
1.15
Double chance
Qarabag or draw✓
88%
1.14
1.01
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.95
2.30 ▲
Draw no bet
Qarabag (draw no bet)✓
85%
1.17
–
Asian handicap
Qarabag -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.17
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.69
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
62%
1.60
1.53
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
79%
1.27
1.22
First team to score
Qarabag to score first✓
69%
1.46
–
Half-time result
Qarabag ahead at half-time✓
49%
2.03
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Qarabag / FT Qarabag✓
45%
2.24
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.26
–
Recent results
Qarabag – last 5
WDLLW
4 Mar
vs Keshla FC
3–1
W
1 Mar
vs Sabah FA
3–3
D
24 Feb
@ Newcastle
2–3
L
18 Feb
vs Newcastle
1–6
L
14 Feb
@ Mil-Muğan
1–0
W
2.0Scored / game
2.6Conceded / game
80%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
Araz – last 3
LWW
27 Feb
vs Zira
0–1
L
21 Feb
@ Karvan
2–0
W
15 Feb
vs Sumqayıt
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Qarabag and Araz.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Qarabag vs Araz?
On our numbers Qarabag have a 71% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Araz 12%.
How many goals will there be in Qarabag vs Araz?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Qarabag vs Araz?
Our predicted score is Qarabag 2–0 Araz, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Qarabag vs Araz?
Qarabag vs Araz (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Sunday 8 March 2026 at 16:15 (West Africa Time) at Azersun Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
