Qabala 15%Draw 25%Neftchi Baku 60%Expected goals 0.80 – 1.84
60%
Betarazi pick
Neftchi Baku to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.68 · bookmaker 1.70 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.70Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.00 – our chance 55% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultNeftchi Baku to win ✓60% · @1.70
Double chanceNeftchi Baku or draw ✓85% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @2.00
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.33
Qabala vs Neftchi Baku: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 15 March the Premyer Liqa brings Qabala against Neftchi Baku. Kick-off: 15:00 WAT. In the table, Qabala are 10th, in the drop zone, on 8 points after 11 matches; Neftchi Baku are 1st (leading the league) with 24. There are 16 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Qabala, last 4: LLDL Their latest outing: 1–7 defeat to Sabah FA, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game.
Neftchi Baku, last 3: LDW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Turan, at home. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Neftchi Baku, collecting 1.3 points per game to 0.3 for Qabala.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Qabala 0.8 xG, Neftchi Baku 1.8 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Qabala 15%, draw 25%, Neftchi Baku 60%.
Lower-risk option: Neftchi Baku or draw (85%) at 1.15.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 2.00.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.00 – the bookmaker implies 50%, our ratings say 55%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Neftchi Baku to win (60%, odds 1.70). Most likely score in line with that pick: Qabala 0–1 Neftchi Baku. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Qabala15%fair 6.54 · @4.80
Draw25%fair 4.00 · @3.20
Neftchi Baku60%fair 1.68 · @1.70
2.65Expected goals
0.80Qabala xG
1.84Neftchi Baku xG
55%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–113%
0–212%
1–110%
1–210%
0–37%
0–07%
From our goals model: Qabala 0.8 – 1.8 Neftchi Baku expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Neftchi Baku to win✓
60%
1.68
1.70
Double chance
Neftchi Baku or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.80
2.00 ▲
Draw no bet
Neftchi Baku (draw no bet)✓
80%
1.26
–
Asian handicap
Neftchi Baku -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.98
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
73%
1.38
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
First team to score
Neftchi Baku to score first
65%
1.55
–
Half-time result
Neftchi Baku ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Neftchi Baku / FT Neftchi Baku✗
39%
2.56
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.33
–
Recent results
Qabala – last 4
LLDL
10 Mar
@ Sabah FA
1–7
L
24 Feb
vs Turan
0–3
L
20 Feb
@ Sumqayıt
0–0
D
16 Feb
vs Sabah FA
0–1
L
0.3Scored / game
2.8Conceded / game
25%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Neftchi Baku – last 3
LDW
9 Mar
vs Turan
0–1
L
28 Feb
@ Keshla FC
2–2
D
15 Feb
@ Kapaz
3–1
W
1.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Qabala and Neftchi Baku.
What is the prediction for Qabala vs Neftchi Baku?
Our pick is Neftchi Baku to win with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Qabala vs Neftchi Baku?
On our numbers Qabala have a 15% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Neftchi Baku 60%.
How many goals will there be in Qabala vs Neftchi Baku?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Qabala vs Neftchi Baku?
Our predicted score is Qabala 0–1 Neftchi Baku, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Qabala vs Neftchi Baku?
Qabala vs Neftchi Baku (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
