Value bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 2.15 – our chance 50% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultKeshla FC to win ✗45% · @2.38
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗74% · @1.38
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.48
Keshla FC vs Araz: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
12:00 WAT, Wednesday 18 March: Keshla FC v Araz in the Premyer Liqa, played at Shamakhi City Stadium. In the table, Keshla FC are 7th, lower half, on 14 points after 11 matches; Araz are 12th (in the drop zone) with 4.
Current form
Keshla FC, last 5: WDLDD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Sumqayıt, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Araz, last 5: WLLWW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Karvan, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.6 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Araz, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.2 for Keshla FC.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Keshla FC 1.7 xG, Araz 1.2 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 50% for three or more goals, 57% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Keshla FC 45%, draw 25%, Araz 30%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Over 2.5 goals @2.15 – the bookmaker implies 47%, our ratings say 50%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (74%, odds 1.38). Most likely score in line with that pick: Keshla FC 1–1 Araz. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Keshla FC45%fair 2.22 · @2.38
Draw25%fair 4.05 · @3.00
Araz30%fair 3.31 · @2.90
2.97Expected goals
1.74Keshla FC xG
1.23Araz xG
57%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
2–110%
1–09%
2–08%
1–27%
0–16%
From our goals model: Keshla FC 1.7 – 1.2 Araz expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Keshla FC to win✗
45%
2.22
2.38 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.77
1.80
Draw no bet
Keshla FC (draw no bet)✗
60%
1.67
–
Asian handicap
Araz +1 (Asian handicap)✓
66%
1.53
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
74%
1.36
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
50%
1.99
2.15 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
First team to score
Keshla FC to score first✗
55%
1.80
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
40%
2.53
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Keshla FC / FT Keshla FC✗
30%
3.33
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.48
–
Recent results
Keshla FC – last 6
WDLDDD
13 Mar
@ Sumqayıt
1–0
W
8 Mar
vs Mil-Muğan
0–0
D
4 Mar
@ Qarabag
1–3
L
28 Feb
vs Neftchi Baku
2–2
D
22 Feb
@ Mil-Muğan
0–0
D
16 Feb
vs Turan
0–0
D
0.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Araz – last 5
WLLWW
13 Mar
vs Karvan
2–1
W
8 Mar
@ Qarabag
0–6
L
27 Feb
vs Zira
0–1
L
21 Feb
@ Karvan
2–0
W
15 Feb
vs Sumqayıt
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.6Conceded / game
20%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Keshla FC and Araz.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.38.
Who will win Keshla FC vs Araz?
On our numbers Keshla FC have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Araz 30%.
How many goals will there be in Keshla FC vs Araz?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Keshla FC vs Araz?
Our predicted score is Keshla FC 1–1 Araz, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Keshla FC vs Araz?
Keshla FC vs Araz (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Wednesday 18 March 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time) at Shamakhi City Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
