Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.93 – our chance 55% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultNeftchi Baku to win ✗42% · @2.50
Double chanceEither team to win ✗73% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.93
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.24
Zira vs Neftchi Baku: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Friday 17 April the Premyer Liqa brings Zira against Neftchi Baku at Zira Stadium. Kick-off: 16:30 WAT. In the table, Zira are 5th, upper half, on 19 points after 11 matches; Neftchi Baku are 1st (leading the league) with 24.
Current form
Zira, last 5: DWWDW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Şamaxı FK, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Neftchi Baku, last 5: WWWLD Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Sumqayıt, away. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 4. Scoring is no problem – 2.8 a game lately.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Zira 1.1 xG, Neftchi Baku 1.4 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Zira 31%, draw 27%, Neftchi Baku 42%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.93.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.93 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 55%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (68%, odds 1.45). Most likely score in line with that pick: Zira 1–1 Neftchi Baku. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Zira31%fair 3.18 · @2.80
Draw27%fair 3.71 · @2.90
Neftchi Baku42%fair 2.41 · @2.50
2.57Expected goals
1.14Zira xG
1.42Neftchi Baku xG
55%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
1–09%
0–28%
0–08%
From our goals model: Zira 1.1 – 1.4 Neftchi Baku expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Neftchi Baku to win✗
42%
2.41
2.50
Double chance
Either team to win✗
73%
1.37
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.82
1.93 ▲
Draw no bet
Neftchi Baku (draw no bet)
57%
1.76
–
Asian handicap
Zira +1 (Asian handicap)✓
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.46
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.77
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.18
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.13
–
First team to score
Neftchi Baku to score first
51%
1.95
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Neftchi Baku / FT Neftchi Baku✗
26%
3.92
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.24
–
Recent results
Zira – last 6
DWWDWW
7 Apr
vs Şamaxı FK
1–1
D
3 Apr
@ Turan
2–0
W
19 Mar
@ Karvan
1–0
W
9 Mar
vs Kapaz
2–2
D
3 Mar
vs Sumqayıt
2–0
W
27 Feb
@ Araz
1–0
W
1.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Neftchi Baku – last 6
WWWLDW
5 Apr
@ Sumqayıt
3–1
W
20 Mar
vs Imisli FK
6–0
W
15 Mar
@ Qabala
3–1
W
9 Mar
vs Turan
0–1
L
28 Feb
@ Keshla FC
2–2
D
15 Feb
@ Kapaz
3–1
W
2.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Zira and Neftchi Baku.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Zira vs Neftchi Baku?
On our numbers Zira have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Neftchi Baku 42%.
How many goals will there be in Zira vs Neftchi Baku?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Zira vs Neftchi Baku?
Our predicted score is Zira 1–1 Neftchi Baku, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Zira vs Neftchi Baku?
Zira vs Neftchi Baku (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Friday 17 April 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Zira Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
