Qarabag welcome Turan to Azersun Arena for a Premyer Liqa fixture on Monday 4 May (16:30 WAT). In the table, Qarabag are 4th, among the top four, on 19 points after 10 matches; Turan are 2nd (among the top four) with 21. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Qarabag, last 5: LLWDL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Neftchi Baku, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 3.0 goals per game.
Turan, last 5: DDWDL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Zira, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Qarabag 1.5 xG, Turan 0.8 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 50%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Qarabag 56%, draw 27%, Turan 17%.
GG/NG: GG (50%) at 1.93.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Qarabag 1–0 Turan. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Qarabag56%fair 1.78 · @1.48
Draw27%fair 3.74 · @3.75
Turan17%fair 5.88 · @6.25
2.27Expected goals
1.46Qarabag xG
0.81Turan xG
50%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
1–112%
2–011%
0–010%
2–19%
0–18%
From our goals model: Qarabag 1.5 – 0.8 Turan expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Qarabag to win✓
56%
1.78
1.48
Double chance
Qarabag or draw✓
83%
1.20
1.06
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
50%
1.99
1.93
Draw no bet
Qarabag (draw no bet)✓
77%
1.30
–
Asian handicap
Turan +1 (Asian handicap)
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.80
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.30
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
92%
1.09
–
First team to score
Qarabag to score first
58%
1.73
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Qarabag / FT Qarabag✗
31%
3.18
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
9%
11.21
–
Recent results
Qarabag – last 6
LLWDLW
30 Apr
@ Neftchi Baku
1–2
L
22 Apr
@ Sabah FA
1–2
L
6 Apr
vs Karvan
8–0
W
3 Apr
vs Sabah FA
2–2
D
20 Mar
@ Kapaz
0–1
L
8 Mar
vs Araz
6–0
W
3.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Turan – last 6
DDWDLD
27 Apr
vs Zira
1–1
D
21 Apr
@ Zira
0–0
D
17 Apr
@ Araz
3–0
W
7 Apr
@ Imisli FK
1–1
D
3 Apr
vs Zira
0–2
L
15 Mar
@ Kapaz
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Qarabag and Turan.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Qarabag vs Turan?
On our numbers Qarabag have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Turan 17%.
How many goals will there be in Qarabag vs Turan?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Qarabag vs Turan?
Our predicted score is Qarabag 1–0 Turan, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Qarabag vs Turan?
Qarabag vs Turan (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Monday 4 May 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Azersun Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
