Karvan 13%Draw 20%Neftchi Baku 66%Expected goals 0.97 – 2.06
79%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 56% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultNeftchi Baku to win ✓66% · @1.28
Double chanceNeftchi Baku or draw ✓87% · @1.01
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.95
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.06
Karvan vs Neftchi Baku: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Tuesday 5 May the Premyer Liqa brings Karvan against Neftchi Baku at Yevlakh City Stadium. Kick-off: 13:00 WAT.
Current form
Karvan, last 5: LWLLL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Sabah FA, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 2.5 conceded per game.
Neftchi Baku, last 5: WDWWW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Qarabag, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. 2.5 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Momentum favours Neftchi Baku, collecting 2.2 points per game to 0.7 for Karvan.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Karvan 1.0 xG, Neftchi Baku 2.1 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 57% for three or more goals, 56% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Karvan 13%, draw 20%, Neftchi Baku 66%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 56%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (79%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Karvan 0–2 Neftchi Baku. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Karvan13%fair 7.51 · @9.75
Draw20%fair 4.95 · @4.60
Neftchi Baku66%fair 1.50 · @1.28
3.03Expected goals
0.97Karvan xG
2.06Neftchi Baku xG
56%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–210%
1–210%
0–110%
1–110%
0–37%
1–37%
From our goals model: Karvan 1.0 – 2.1 Neftchi Baku expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Neftchi Baku to win✓
66%
1.50
1.28
Double chance
Neftchi Baku or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.01
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.80
1.95 ▲
Draw no bet
Neftchi Baku (draw no bet)✓
83%
1.20
–
Asian handicap
Neftchi Baku -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.74
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
64%
1.56
1.45
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.22
First team to score
Neftchi Baku to score first✓
65%
1.55
–
Half-time result
Neftchi Baku ahead at half-time✓
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Neftchi Baku / FT Neftchi Baku✓
40%
2.49
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.06
–
Recent results
Karvan – last 6
LWLLLD
27 Apr
@ Sabah FA
0–2
L
10 Apr
vs Kapaz
4–1
W
6 Apr
@ Qarabag
0–8
L
19 Mar
vs Zira
0–1
L
13 Mar
@ Araz
1–2
L
7 Mar
vs Sumqayıt
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Neftchi Baku – last 6
WDWWWL
30 Apr
vs Qarabag
2–1
W
17 Apr
@ Zira
1–1
D
5 Apr
@ Sumqayıt
3–1
W
20 Mar
vs Imisli FK
6–0
W
15 Mar
@ Qabala
3–1
W
9 Mar
vs Turan
0–1
L
2.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Karvan and Neftchi Baku.
What is the prediction for Karvan vs Neftchi Baku?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Karvan vs Neftchi Baku?
On our numbers Karvan have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Neftchi Baku 66%.
How many goals will there be in Karvan vs Neftchi Baku?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Karvan vs Neftchi Baku?
Our predicted score is Karvan 0–2 Neftchi Baku, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Karvan vs Neftchi Baku?
Karvan vs Neftchi Baku (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Tuesday 5 May 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time) at Yevlakh City Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
