Sumqayıt 18%Draw 22%Qarabag 59%Expected goals 1.13 – 1.75
63%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.58 · bookmaker 1.57 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.57Odds
Picks by market
ResultQarabag to win ✓59% · @1.33
Double chanceQarabag or draw ✓82% · @1.02
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.29
Sumqayıt vs Qarabag: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Friday 22 May the Premyer Liqa brings Sumqayıt against Qarabag at Mehdi Huseynzade Stadium. Kick-off: 16:30 WAT. In the table, Sumqayıt are 9th, lower half, on 10 points after 10 matches; Qarabag are 4th (among the top four) with 19.
Current form
Sumqayıt, last 5: LWLLL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Zira, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Qarabag, last 5: WLLWD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Turan, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.3 a game lately.
Momentum favours Qarabag, collecting 1.2 points per game to 0.7 for Sumqayıt.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sumqayıt 1.1 xG, Qarabag 1.8 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 58%, GG 58%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sumqayıt 18%, draw 22%, Qarabag 59%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.75.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (63%, odds 1.57). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sumqayıt 1–1 Qarabag. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sumqayıt18%fair 5.48 · @8.20
Draw22%fair 4.48 · @4.60
Qarabag59%fair 1.68 · @1.33
2.88Expected goals
1.13Sumqayıt xG
1.75Qarabag xG
58%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
0–110%
1–210%
0–29%
1–06%
2–16%
From our goals model: Sumqayıt 1.1 – 1.8 Qarabag expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Qarabag to win✓
59%
1.68
1.33
Double chance
Qarabag or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.02
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.73
1.75
Draw no bet
Qarabag (draw no bet)✓
77%
1.31
–
Asian handicap
Sumqayıt +1 (Asian handicap)
63%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
63%
1.58
1.57
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
80%
1.25
1.22
First team to score
Qarabag to score first✓
57%
1.74
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.50
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Qarabag / FT Qarabag✓
32%
3.13
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.29
–
Recent results
Sumqayıt – last 6
LWLLLD
17 May
@ Zira
1–2
L
19 Apr
vs Qabala
1–0
W
5 Apr
vs Neftchi Baku
1–3
L
19 Mar
@ Sabah FA
1–3
L
13 Mar
vs Keshla FC
0–1
L
7 Mar
@ Karvan
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Qarabag – last 6
WLLWDL
4 May
vs Turan
2–1
W
30 Apr
@ Neftchi Baku
1–2
L
22 Apr
@ Sabah FA
1–2
L
6 Apr
vs Karvan
8–0
W
3 Apr
vs Sabah FA
2–2
D
20 Mar
@ Kapaz
0–1
L
2.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sumqayıt and Qarabag.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Sumqayıt vs Qarabag?
On our numbers Sumqayıt have a 18% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Qarabag 59%.
How many goals will there be in Sumqayıt vs Qarabag?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sumqayıt vs Qarabag?
Our predicted score is Sumqayıt 1–1 Qarabag, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Sumqayıt vs Qarabag?
Sumqayıt vs Qarabag (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Friday 22 May 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Mehdi Huseynzade Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
