Qabala 36%Draw 27%Şamaxı FK 37%Expected goals 1.11 – 1.32
67%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.49 · bookmaker 1.45 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.45Odds
2
Value bet: Şamaxı FK to win @ 3.10 – our chance 37% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultŞamaxı FK to win ✗37% · @3.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.93
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗78% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 11.77
Qabala vs Şamaxı FK: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Thursday 21 May the Premyer Liqa brings Qabala against Şamaxı FK at Şəhər stadionu. Kick-off: 15:30 WAT. In the table, Qabala are 10th, in the drop zone, on 8 points after 11 matches; Şamaxı FK are 7th (lower half) with 14.
Current form
Qabala, last 5: LLWLL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Sumqayıt, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Şamaxı FK, last 5: LWDLW Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Sabah FA, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Şamaxı FK, collecting 1.3 points per game to 0.5 for Qabala.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Qabala 1.1 xG, Şamaxı FK 1.3 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Qabala 36%, draw 27%, Şamaxı FK 37%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.93.
Price worth noting: Şamaxı FK to win @3.10 – the bookmaker implies 32%, our ratings say 37%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (67%, odds 1.45). Most likely score in line with that pick: Qabala 1–1 Şamaxı FK. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Qabala36%fair 2.81 · @2.30
Draw27%fair 3.70 · @2.95
Şamaxı FK37%fair 2.68 · @3.10
2.43Expected goals
1.11Qabala xG
1.32Şamaxı FK xG
53%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–112%
1–010%
0–09%
1–28%
0–28%
From our goals model: Qabala 1.1 – 1.3 Şamaxı FK expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Şamaxı FK to win✗
37%
2.68
3.10 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
73%
1.37
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.88
1.93
Draw no bet
Şamaxı FK (draw no bet)✗
51%
1.95
–
Asian handicap
Qabala +1 (Asian handicap)✓
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.72
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
78%
1.28
1.18
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
First team to score
Şamaxı FK to score first
49%
2.02
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Şamaxı FK / FT Şamaxı FK✗
24%
4.18
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
11.77
–
Recent results
Qabala – last 6
LLWLLL
19 Apr
@ Sumqayıt
0–1
L
12 Apr
vs Imisli FK
0–1
L
5 Apr
@ Kapaz
2–0
W
15 Mar
vs Neftchi Baku
1–3
L
10 Mar
@ Sabah FA
1–7
L
24 Feb
vs Turan
0–3
L
0.7Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Şamaxı FK – last 6
LWDLWD
3 May
vs Sabah FA
0–3
L
26 Apr
vs Kapaz
2–0
W
7 Apr
@ Zira
1–1
D
18 Mar
vs Araz
0–1
L
13 Mar
@ Sumqayıt
1–0
W
8 Mar
vs Mil-Muğan
0–0
D
0.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Qabala and Şamaxı FK.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Qabala vs Şamaxı FK?
On our numbers Qabala have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Şamaxı FK 37%.
How many goals will there be in Qabala vs Şamaxı FK?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Qabala vs Şamaxı FK?
Our predicted score is Qabala 1–1 Şamaxı FK, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Qabala vs Şamaxı FK?
Qabala vs Şamaxı FK (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Thursday 21 May 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at Şəhər stadionu.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
