Value bet: Poggibonsi to win @ 3.00 – our chance 35% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultFoligno Calcio to win ✗38% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · fair 1.96
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10% · fair 9.63
Poggibonsi vs Foligno Calcio: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Poggibonsi welcome Foligno Calcio to Stadio Stefano Lotti for a Serie D Girone E fixture on Sunday 15 February (14:30 WAT).
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Poggibonsi 1.3 xG, Foligno Calcio 1.2 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 47%, GG 49%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Poggibonsi 35%, draw 27%, Foligno Calcio 38%.
Price worth noting: Poggibonsi to win @3.00 – the bookmaker implies 33%, our ratings say 35%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (53%, odds 1.80). Most likely score in line with that pick: Poggibonsi 1–1 Foligno Calcio. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Poggibonsi35%fair 2.82 · @3.00
Draw27%fair 3.72 · @3.30
Foligno Calcio38%fair 2.66 · @2.10
2.41Expected goals
1.25Poggibonsi xG
1.15Foligno Calcio xG
49%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Poggibonsi 1.3 – 1.2 Foligno Calcio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Poggibonsi
Foligno Calcio
Attack vs Serie D Girone E average
-10%
-10%
Goals conceded vs average
-5%
-16%
Our expected goals here
1.16
0.89
Our own ratings from every Serie D Girone E result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Foligno Calcio to win✗
38%
2.66
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✓
73%
1.37
1.22
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
51%
1.96
–
Draw no bet
Foligno Calcio (draw no bet)✗
52%
1.94
–
Asian handicap
Foligno Calcio +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
69%
1.44
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.87
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.29
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
First team to score
Poggibonsi to score first✓
47%
2.11
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Poggibonsi / FT Poggibonsi✗
22%
4.51
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
10%
9.63
–
Recent results
Poggibonsi
No recent results on record.
Foligno Calcio
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Poggibonsi and Foligno Calcio.
What is the prediction for Poggibonsi vs Foligno Calcio?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Poggibonsi vs Foligno Calcio?
On our numbers Poggibonsi have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Foligno Calcio 38%.
How many goals will there be in Poggibonsi vs Foligno Calcio?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Poggibonsi vs Foligno Calcio?
Our predicted score is Poggibonsi 1–1 Foligno Calcio, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Poggibonsi vs Foligno Calcio?
Poggibonsi vs Foligno Calcio (Serie D Girone E) kicks off on Sunday 15 February 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Stefano Lotti.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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