Messina v Gelbison Prediction & Expected Goals (29 Mar) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultMessina to win ✗39% · @2.62

Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.28

Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗56% · fair 1.77

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.57

Messina vs Gelbison: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

14:00 WAT, Sunday 29 March: Messina v Gelbison in the Serie D Girone I, played at Stadio San Filippo.

Current form

Messina, last 5: DLDLD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Vibonese, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.4 goals a game.

Gelbison, last 4: DDWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Igea Virtus, at home. 2.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.

Momentum favours Gelbison, collecting 2.0 points per game to 0.6 for Messina.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Messina 1.3 xG, Gelbison 1.0 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 41%, GG 44%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Messina 39%, draw 26%, Gelbison 34%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (59%, odds 1.62). Most likely score in line with that pick: Messina 1–0 Gelbison. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Messina39%fair 2.54 · @2.62

Draw26%fair 3.81 · @3.20

Gelbison34%fair 2.90 · @2.38

2.26Expected goals

1.26Messina xG

0.99Gelbison xG

44%Both score

41%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–013%

1–113%

0–010%

0–110%

2–08%

2–18%

From our goals model: Messina 1.3 – 1.0 Gelbison expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Messina to win ✗	39%	2.54	2.62
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	74%	1.36	1.28
Both teams to score	Not both teams to score ✗	56%	1.77	–
Draw no bet	Messina (draw no bet) ✗	53%	1.88	–
Asian handicap	Gelbison +1 (Asian handicap) ✓	75%	1.33	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	66%	1.52	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✗	59%	1.68	1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	81%	1.24	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	92%	1.09	–
First team to score	Messina to score first ✓	50%	2.00	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✗	47%	2.14	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Messina / FT Messina ✗	24%	4.09	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–0 ✗	13%	7.57	–

Messina – last 5

DLDLD

22 Mar	@ Vibonese	0–0	D
15 Mar	vs Nissa	0–1	L
1 Mar	@ CastrumFavara	1–1	D
22 Feb	vs Sambiase	0–1	L
15 Feb	@ Reggina	1–1	D

0.4Scored / game

0.8Conceded / game

40%Both scored

0%Over 2.5

Gelbison – last 4

DDWW

22 Mar	vs Igea Virtus	1–1	D
15 Mar	@ Savoia	1–1	D
22 Feb	@ Vibonese	4–0	W
15 Feb	vs Ragusa	2–0	W

2.0Scored / game

0.5Conceded / game

50%Both scored

25%Over 2.5

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Messina vs Gelbison?

Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.

Who will win Messina vs Gelbison?

On our numbers Messina have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Gelbison 34%.

How many goals will there be in Messina vs Gelbison?

We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Messina vs Gelbison?

Our predicted score is Messina 1–0 Gelbison, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.

When is Messina vs Gelbison?

Messina vs Gelbison (Serie D Girone I) kicks off on Sunday 29 March 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio San Filippo.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Messina v Gelbison: numbers & prediction

Messina

Gelbison

Under 2.5 goals