Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓50% · fair 2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 8.96
Derio vs Durango: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
17:00 WAT, Thursday 19 March: Derio v Durango in the Tercera División RFEF Group 4, played at Campo de Fútbol Ibaiondo. In the table, Derio are 5th, upper half, on 18 points after 10 matches; Durango are 6th (upper half) with 17. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Derio, last 3: WWD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Aretxabaleta, away. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Derio 1.4 xG, Durango 1.1 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 47%, GG 50%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Derio 48%, draw 25%, Durango 27%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (53%, odds 1.80). Most likely score in line with that pick: Derio 1–1 Durango. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Derio48%fair 2.08 · @1.80
Draw25%fair 4.04 · @3.50
Durango27%fair 3.68 · @3.60
2.53Expected goals
1.40Derio xG
1.13Durango xG
50%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–19%
2–19%
0–08%
2–08%
From our goals model: Derio 1.4 – 1.1 Durango expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Derio to win✓
48%
2.08
1.80
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.22
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
50%
2.00
–
Draw no bet
Derio (draw no bet)✓
64%
1.56
–
Asian handicap
Durango +1 (Asian handicap)✗
74%
1.36
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.88
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.13
–
First team to score
Derio to score first✓
51%
1.97
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.29
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Derio / FT Derio✓
25%
3.97
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
8.96
–
Recent results
Derio – last 3
WWD
15 Mar
@ Aretxabaleta
2–1
W
8 Mar
vs Zamudio
2–1
W
1 Mar
@ Santurtzi
1–1
D
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Durango – last 2
LW
21 Feb
@ Leioa
1–2
L
14 Feb
vs Eibar III
3–0
W
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Derio and Durango.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Derio vs Durango?
On our numbers Derio have a 48% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Durango 27%.
How many goals will there be in Derio vs Durango?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Derio vs Durango?
Our predicted score is Derio 1–1 Durango, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Derio vs Durango?
Derio vs Durango (Tercera División RFEF Group 4) kicks off on Thursday 19 March 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Campo de Fútbol Ibaiondo.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Portugalete2
Zamudio0
Zarautz0