Value bet: Pasaia KE to win @ 2.70 – our chance 41% vs 37% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultPasaia KE to win ✓41% · @2.70
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.86
Zarautz vs Pasaia KE: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Pasaia KE travel to face Zarautz on Thursday 19 March in the Tercera División RFEF Group 4, with Estadio Asti Kirol Instalakuntzak the venue – the ball rolls at 15:45 WAT.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Zarautz 1.1 xG, Pasaia KE 1.2 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 40%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Zarautz 37%, draw 22%, Pasaia KE 41%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.91.
Price worth noting: Pasaia KE to win @2.70 – the bookmaker implies 37%, our ratings say 41%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (56%, odds 1.91 – longer than our fair 1.80, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Zarautz 1–1 Pasaia KE. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Zarautz37%fair 2.68 · @2.30
Draw22%fair 4.59 · @3.25
Pasaia KE41%fair 2.45 · @2.70
2.27Expected goals
1.10Zarautz xG
1.17Pasaia KE xG
56%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–112%
1–011%
0–010%
1–28%
2–17%
From our goals model: Zarautz 1.1 – 1.2 Pasaia KE expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Pasaia KE to win✓
41%
2.45
2.70 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.36 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.80
1.91 ▲
Draw no bet
Pasaia KE (draw no bet)✓
52%
1.92
–
Asian handicap
Zarautz +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
63%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
92%
1.09
–
First team to score
Pasaia KE to score first✓
46%
2.16
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Pasaia KE / FT Pasaia KE✗
21%
4.71
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.86
–
Recent results
Zarautz – last 1
L
1 Mar
@ Eibar III
0–3
L
0.0Scored / game
3.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Pasaia KE – last 1
W
22 Feb
@ San Ignacio
2–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Zarautz and Pasaia KE.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.91.
Who will win Zarautz vs Pasaia KE?
On our numbers Zarautz have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Pasaia KE 41%.
How many goals will there be in Zarautz vs Pasaia KE?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Zarautz vs Pasaia KE?
Our predicted score is Zarautz 1–1 Pasaia KE, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Zarautz vs Pasaia KE?
Zarautz vs Pasaia KE (Tercera División RFEF Group 4) kicks off on Thursday 19 March 2026 at 15:45 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Asti Kirol Instalakuntzak.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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