Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
Picks by market
ResultPolice to win ✓50% · @1.95
Double chancePolice or draw ✓80% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓62% · fair 1.61
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.34
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗20% · fair 4.98
Sofapaka vs Police: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Thursday 26 February the FKF Premier League brings Sofapaka against Police at Kasarani Annex Stadium. Kick-off: 11:00 WAT.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sofapaka 0.6 xG, Police 1.1 xG – a total near 1.7. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 75% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sofapaka 20%, draw 30%, Police 50%.
Lower-risk option: Police or draw (80%) at 1.22.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Police or draw (80%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sofapaka 0–1 Police. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sofapaka20%fair 4.96 · @3.80
Draw30%fair 3.30 · @2.90
Police50%fair 2.02 · @1.95
1.73Expected goals
0.60Sofapaka xG
1.14Police xG
38%Both score
25%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–120%
0–018%
1–112%
0–211%
1–011%
1–27%
From our goals model: Sofapaka 0.6 – 1.1 Police expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Sofapaka
Police
Attack vs FKF Premier League average
-24%
-13%
Goals conceded vs average
+49%
-33%
Our expected goals here
0.60
1.15
Our own ratings from every FKF Premier League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Police to win✓
50%
2.02
1.95
Double chance
Police or draw✓
80%
1.25
1.22
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
62%
1.61
–
Draw no bet
Police (draw no bet)✓
71%
1.41
–
Asian handicap
Sofapaka +1 (Asian handicap)✗
71%
1.41
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
56%
1.79
1.50
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
97%
1.03
–
First team to score
Police to score first✓
54%
1.85
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
53%
1.89
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Police / FT Police✓
28%
3.59
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
20%
4.98
–
Recent results
Sofapaka – last 2
LL
20 Feb
@ Homeboyz
0–2
L
15 Feb
vs Murang'a SEAL
2–3
L
1.0Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Police – last 2
DD
22 Feb
vs APS Bomet
0–0
D
15 Feb
@ Ulinzi Stars
1–1
D
0.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sofapaka and Police.
Our pick is Police or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Sofapaka vs Police?
On our numbers Sofapaka have a 20% chance of winning, the draw 30% and Police 50%.
How many goals will there be in Sofapaka vs Police?
We expect about 1.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 25% likely and both teams score 38% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sofapaka vs Police?
Our predicted score is Sofapaka 0–1 Police, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.7 goals in total.
When is Sofapaka vs Police?
Sofapaka vs Police (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Thursday 26 February 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Kasarani Annex Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Ulinzi Stars1
Homeboyz1
APS Bomet0
Kariobangi Sharks1
Bidco United2
Mara Sugar2