Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓59% · fair 1.69
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓69% · @1.40
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓18% · fair 5.41
AFC Leopards vs Tusker: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
14:00 WAT, Sunday 22 March: AFC Leopards v Tusker in the FKF Premier League, played at Nyayo National Stadium. In the table, AFC Leopards are 3rd, among the top four, on 10 points after 6 matches; Tusker are 11th (lower half) with 6.
Current form
AFC Leopards, last 5: WWLWD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Nairobi United, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.6 scored, 0.6 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Tusker, last 4: WWWL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Homeboyz, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give AFC Leopards 1.1 xG, Tusker 0.7 xG – a total near 1.8. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 69% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – AFC Leopards 45%, draw 32%, Tusker 23%.
Lower-risk option: AFC Leopards or draw (77%) at 1.22.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was AFC Leopards or draw (77%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: AFC Leopards 1–0 Tusker. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
AFC Leopards45%fair 2.22 · @2.05
Draw32%fair 3.17 · @2.75
Tusker23%fair 4.27 · @3.75
1.83Expected goals
1.15AFC Leopards xG
0.68Tusker xG
41%Both score
31%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–018%
0–016%
1–113%
0–111%
2–011%
2–17%
From our goals model: AFC Leopards 1.1 – 0.7 Tusker expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
AFC Leopards
Tusker
Attack vs FKF Premier League average
-12%
+9%
Goals conceded vs average
-46%
-4%
Our expected goals here
0.99
0.52
Our own ratings from every FKF Premier League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
AFC Leopards to win✓
45%
2.22
2.05
Double chance
AFC Leopards or draw✓
77%
1.31
1.22
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
59%
1.69
–
Draw no bet
AFC Leopards (draw no bet)✓
66%
1.52
–
Asian handicap
Tusker +1 (Asian handicap)
72%
1.38
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
55%
1.83
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
69%
1.44
1.40
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
89%
1.13
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
96%
1.04
–
First team to score
AFC Leopards to score first✓
53%
1.90
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
52%
1.93
–
Half-time / full-time
HT AFC Leopards / FT AFC Leopards✗
27%
3.73
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
18%
5.41
–
Recent results
AFC Leopards – last 5
WWLWD
18 Mar
vs Nairobi United
1–0
W
1 Mar
vs Shabana
5–1
W
26 Feb
@ KCB
0–1
L
21 Feb
vs Posta Rangers FC
2–1
W
14 Feb
@ Bandari
0–0
D
1.6Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Tusker – last 4
WWWL
15 Mar
vs Homeboyz
2–0
W
2 Mar
@ Kariobangi Sharks
2–1
W
25 Feb
vs Murang'a SEAL
1–0
W
21 Feb
@ Shabana
0–1
L
1.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
25%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AFC Leopards and Tusker.
What is the prediction for AFC Leopards vs Tusker?
Our pick is AFC Leopards or draw with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win AFC Leopards vs Tusker?
On our numbers AFC Leopards have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 32% and Tusker 23%.
How many goals will there be in AFC Leopards vs Tusker?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 31% likely and both teams score 41% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AFC Leopards vs Tusker?
Our predicted score is AFC Leopards 1–0 Tusker, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is AFC Leopards vs Tusker?
AFC Leopards vs Tusker (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Nyayo National Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Kariobangi Sharks1