GOR Mahia 56%Draw 27%Shabana 16%Expected goals 1.46 – 0.68
62%
Betarazi pick
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.61 · bookmaker 1.57
5/10Rating
1.57Odds
Picks by market
ResultGOR Mahia to win56% · @1.67
Double chanceGOR Mahia or draw84% · @1.11
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score60% · fair 1.68
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals83% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–017% · fair 5.80
GOR Mahia vs Shabana: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
GOR Mahia welcome Shabana to Moi International Sports Centre for a FKF Premier League fixture on Saturday 21 March (14:00 WAT). In the table, GOR Mahia are 1st, leading the league, on 13 points after 6 matches; Shabana are 5th (upper half) with 9.
Current form
GOR Mahia, last 4: WDWW Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Ulinzi Stars, away. 2.3 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Shabana, last 4: LLWW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Kariobangi Sharks, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours GOR Mahia, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.5 for Shabana.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give GOR Mahia 1.5 xG, Shabana 0.7 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 62% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – GOR Mahia 56%, draw 27%, Shabana 16%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (62%, odds 1.57). Most likely score in line with that pick: GOR Mahia 1–0 Shabana. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
GOR Mahia56%fair 1.78 · @1.67
Draw27%fair 3.67 · @3.20
Shabana16%fair 6.06 · @5.00
2.13Expected goals
1.46GOR Mahia xG
0.68Shabana xG
40%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–017%
2–013%
0–012%
1–112%
2–19%
0–18%
From our goals model: GOR Mahia 1.5 – 0.7 Shabana expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
GOR Mahia
Shabana
Attack vs FKF Premier League average
+20%
-14%
Goals conceded vs average
-20%
-11%
Our expected goals here
1.25
0.61
Our own ratings from every FKF Premier League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
GOR Mahia to win
56%
1.78
1.67
Double chance
GOR Mahia or draw
84%
1.20
1.11
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score
60%
1.68
–
Draw no bet
GOR Mahia (draw no bet)
77%
1.29
–
Asian handicap
Shabana +1 (Asian handicap)
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
62%
1.61
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
83%
1.20
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
93%
1.07
–
First team to score
GOR Mahia to score first
60%
1.66
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
47%
2.13
–
Half-time / full-time
HT GOR Mahia / FT GOR Mahia
34%
2.98
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
17%
5.80
–
Recent results
GOR Mahia – last 4
WDWW
15 Mar
@ Ulinzi Stars
3–1
W
5 Mar
@ Posta Rangers FC
1–1
D
22 Feb
vs KCB
3–0
W
15 Feb
@ APS Bomet
2–1
W
2.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
75%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Shabana – last 4
LLWW
15 Mar
vs Kariobangi Sharks
1–2
L
1 Mar
@ AFC Leopards
1–5
L
25 Feb
@ Mathare United
1–0
W
21 Feb
vs Tusker
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between GOR Mahia and Shabana.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win GOR Mahia vs Shabana?
On our numbers GOR Mahia have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Shabana 16%.
How many goals will there be in GOR Mahia vs Shabana?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 40% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for GOR Mahia vs Shabana?
Our predicted score is GOR Mahia 1–0 Shabana, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is GOR Mahia vs Shabana?
GOR Mahia vs Shabana (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 21 March 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Moi International Sports Centre.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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