APS Bomet 37%Draw 30%Nairobi United 33%Expected goals 1.09 – 0.84
59%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.70 · bookmaker 1.50 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.50Odds
Picks by market
ResultAPS Bomet to win ✗37% · @2.85
Double chanceEither team to win ✗70% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓60% · fair 1.68
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓70% · fair 1.44
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.32
APS Bomet vs Nairobi United: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 29 March the FKF Premier League brings APS Bomet against Nairobi United at Gusii Stadium. Kick-off: 08:00 WAT. In the table, APS Bomet are 13th, lower half, on 6 points after 6 matches; Nairobi United are 15th (lower half) with 5. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
APS Bomet, last 5: DDLLD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Mara Sugar, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Nairobi United, last 5: LLWDD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Ulinzi Stars, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Nairobi United, collecting 1.3 points per game to 0.5 for APS Bomet.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give APS Bomet 1.1 xG, Nairobi United 0.8 xG – a total near 1.9. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 70% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – APS Bomet 37%, draw 30%, Nairobi United 33%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (59%, odds 1.50). Most likely score in line with that pick: APS Bomet 1–1 Nairobi United. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
APS Bomet37%fair 2.73 · @2.85
Draw30%fair 3.29 · @2.85
Nairobi United33%fair 3.03 · @2.40
1.93Expected goals
1.09APS Bomet xG
0.84Nairobi United xG
40%Both score
30%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–016%
0–015%
1–113%
0–112%
2–09%
2–17%
From our goals model: APS Bomet 1.1 – 0.8 Nairobi United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
APS Bomet
Nairobi United
Attack vs FKF Premier League average
-10%
+18%
Goals conceded vs average
-41%
-0%
Our expected goals here
1.05
0.62
Our own ratings from every FKF Premier League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
APS Bomet to win✗
37%
2.73
2.85
Double chance
Either team to win✗
70%
1.44
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
60%
1.68
–
Draw no bet
APS Bomet (draw no bet)
53%
1.90
–
Asian handicap
Nairobi United +1 (Asian handicap)✓
78%
1.28
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
59%
1.70
1.50
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
70%
1.44
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
95%
1.05
–
First team to score
APS Bomet to score first✗
48%
2.08
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
51%
1.97
–
Half-time / full-time
HT APS Bomet / FT APS Bomet✗
23%
4.36
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.32
–
Recent results
APS Bomet – last 6
DDLLDL
21 Mar
@ Mara Sugar
0–0
D
14 Mar
vs Bidco United
1–1
D
2 Mar
@ Homeboyz
1–2
L
26 Feb
vs Kariobangi Sharks
0–1
L
22 Feb
@ Police
0–0
D
15 Feb
vs GOR Mahia
1–2
L
0.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Nairobi United – last 6
LLWDDW
22 Mar
vs Ulinzi Stars
1–2
L
18 Mar
@ AFC Leopards
0–1
L
14 Mar
@ Sofapaka
1–0
W
4 Mar
vs KCB
1–1
D
25 Feb
@ Bandari
1–1
D
21 Feb
vs Bidco United
3–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between APS Bomet and Nairobi United.
What is the prediction for APS Bomet vs Nairobi United?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win APS Bomet vs Nairobi United?
On our numbers APS Bomet have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 30% and Nairobi United 33%.
How many goals will there be in APS Bomet vs Nairobi United?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 30% likely and both teams score 40% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for APS Bomet vs Nairobi United?
Our predicted score is APS Bomet 1–1 Nairobi United, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is APS Bomet vs Nairobi United?
APS Bomet vs Nairobi United (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 29 March 2026 at 08:00 (West Africa Time) at Gusii Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Sofapaka0
Kariobangi Sharks0