AFC Leopards 39%Draw 35%Police 25%Expected goals 0.93 – 0.63
74%
Betarazi pick
Under 2.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.35 · bookmaker 1.36
8/10Rating
1.36Odds
Picks by market
ResultAFC Leopards to win39% · @2.30
Double chanceAFC Leopards or draw75% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score65% · fair 1.53
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals74% · @1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–020% · fair 5.10
AFC Leopards vs Police: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 18 April the FKF Premier League brings AFC Leopards against Police at Nyayo National Stadium. Kick-off: 13:00 WAT.
Current form
AFC Leopards, last 5: WWWWW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Murang'a SEAL, away. In their own stadium the record reads 4 won, 0 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Police, last 5: DWLWW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Mathare United, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 5 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours AFC Leopards, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.8 for Police.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give AFC Leopards 0.9 xG, Police 0.6 xG – a total near 1.6. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 74% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – AFC Leopards 39%, draw 35%, Police 25%.
Lower-risk option: AFC Leopards or draw (75%) at 1.25.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (74%, odds 1.36). Most likely score in line with that pick: AFC Leopards 0–0 Police. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
AFC Leopards39%fair 2.53 · @2.30
Draw35%fair 2.85 · @2.70
Police25%fair 3.93 · @3.25
1.55Expected goals
0.93AFC Leopards xG
0.63Police xG
35%Both score
26%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–021%
1–020%
0–113%
1–112%
2–09%
2–16%
From our goals model: AFC Leopards 0.9 – 0.6 Police expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
AFC Leopards
Police
Attack vs FKF Premier League average
-12%
-13%
Goals conceded vs average
-46%
-33%
Our expected goals here
0.69
0.42
Our own ratings from every FKF Premier League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
AFC Leopards to win
39%
2.53
2.30
Double chance
AFC Leopards or draw
75%
1.34
1.25
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score
65%
1.53
–
Draw no bet
AFC Leopards (draw no bet)
61%
1.64
–
Asian handicap
Police +1 (Asian handicap)
80%
1.26
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Under 1.5 goals
54%
1.85
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
74%
1.35
1.36
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
93%
1.08
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
98%
1.02
–
First team to score
AFC Leopards to score first
47%
2.12
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
56%
1.78
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw
28%
3.56
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
20%
5.10
–
Recent results
AFC Leopards – last 6
WWWWWL
5 Apr
@ Murang'a SEAL
2–0
W
29 Mar
vs Kariobangi Sharks
1–0
W
22 Mar
vs Tusker
1–0
W
18 Mar
vs Nairobi United
1–0
W
1 Mar
vs Shabana
5–1
W
26 Feb
@ KCB
0–1
L
1.7Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Police – last 6
DWLWWD
14 Apr
@ Mathare United
0–0
D
3 Apr
vs Tusker
1–0
W
13 Mar
@ Posta Rangers FC
0–2
L
1 Mar
vs Bandari
2–0
W
26 Feb
@ Sofapaka
2–0
W
22 Feb
vs APS Bomet
0–0
D
0.8Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AFC Leopards and Police.
What is the prediction for AFC Leopards vs Police?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win AFC Leopards vs Police?
On our numbers AFC Leopards have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 35% and Police 25%.
How many goals will there be in AFC Leopards vs Police?
We expect about 1.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 26% likely and both teams score 35% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AFC Leopards vs Police?
Our predicted score is AFC Leopards 0–0 Police, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.6 goals in total.
When is AFC Leopards vs Police?
AFC Leopards vs Police (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 18 April 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time) at Nyayo National Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Kariobangi Sharks0
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