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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Tunisia v Japan: numbers & prediction

World Cup · World · Estadio BBVA

Tunisia

LLLDW
0–4
FT

Japan

DWW
Tunisia 15%Draw 23%Japan 62% Expected goals 1.13 – 2.27
78%
Betarazi pick

Over 1.5 goals

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.33 · Won ✓

9/10Rating
1.33Odds
GG

Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.05 – our chance 58% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Picks by market

ResultJapan to win ✓62% · @1.44
Double chanceJapan or draw ✓85% · @1.09
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @2.05
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.29

Tunisia vs Japan: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Sunday 21 June the World Cup brings Tunisia against Japan at Estadio BBVA. Kick-off: 05:00 WAT.

Current form

Tunisia, last 5: LLLDW Their latest outing: 1–5 defeat to Sweden, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.4 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.

Japan, last 3: DWW Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Netherlands, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.

Momentum favours Japan, collecting 2.3 points per game to 0.8 for Tunisia.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Tunisia 1.1 xG, Japan 2.3 xG – a total near 3.4. That is an open game on paper: 57% for three or more goals, 58% for GG.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Tunisia 15%, draw 23%, Japan 62%.
  • GG/NG: GG (58%) at 2.05.
  • Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.05 – the bookmaker implies 49%, our ratings say 58%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (78%, odds 1.33 – longer than our fair 1.28, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Tunisia 1–2 Japan. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Tunisia15%fair 6.70 · @7.80
Draw23%fair 4.30 · @4.10
Japan62%fair 1.62 · @1.44
3.40Expected goals
1.13Tunisia xG
2.27Japan xG
58%Both score
57%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–210%
0–29%
1–19%
0–18%
1–37%
0–36%

From our goals model: Tunisia 1.1 – 2.3 Japan expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultJapan to win ✓62%1.621.44
Double chanceJapan or draw ✓85%1.181.09
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗58%1.712.05 ▲
Draw no betJapan (draw no bet) ✓81%1.24–
Asian handicapJapan -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓63%1.59–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78%1.281.33
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✓57%1.762.00 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗65%1.551.28
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓80%1.251.10
First team to scoreJapan to score first ✓64%1.55–
Half-time resultJapan ahead at half-time ✓47%2.13–
Half-time / full-timeHT Japan / FT Japan ✓41%2.44–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10%10.29–

Recent results

Tunisia – last 5

LLLDW
15 Jun@ Sweden1–5L
6 Jun@ Belgium0–5L
1 Jun@ Austria0–1L
1 Apr@ Canada0–0D
29 Mar@ Haiti1–0W
0.4Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
20%Both scored
40%Over 2.5

Japan – last 3

DWW
14 Jun@ Netherlands2–2D
31 Mayvs Iceland1–0W
31 Mar@ England1–0W
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Tunisia and Japan.

Tunisia vs Japan head-to-head page →

More World Cup predictions

FT Ecuador0 Curaçao0 166%1.17X18%7.40217%13.00 2.2–1.3xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 63%@1.60 ✗
FT Spain4 Saudi Arabia0 169%1.11X18%8.60212%18.50 1.6–0.6xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 70%@1.67 ✗
FT Belgium0 Iran0 164%1.42X21%4.35215%7.30 2.0–0.9xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 77%@1.25 ✗
FT Uruguay2 Cape Verde Islands2 162%1.47X22%4.00216%7.10 1.6–0.8xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 78%@1.22 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Tunisia vs Japan?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.

Who will win Tunisia vs Japan?

On our numbers Tunisia have a 15% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Japan 62%.

How many goals will there be in Tunisia vs Japan?

We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Tunisia vs Japan?

Our predicted score is Tunisia 1–2 Japan, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.

When is Tunisia vs Japan?

Tunisia vs Japan (World Cup) kicks off on Sunday 21 June 2026 at 05:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio BBVA.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.