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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Spain v Saudi Arabia: numbers & prediction

World Cup · World · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Spain

DWDDW
4–0
FT

Saudi Arabia

DDWLL
Spain 69%Draw 18%Saudi Arabia 12% Expected goals 1.55 – 0.56
70%
Betarazi pick

Under 3.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.43 · bookmaker 1.67 · Lost ✗

7/10Rating
1.67Odds
U2.5

Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.60 – our chance 50% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +31%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Picks by market

ResultSpain to win ✓69% · @1.11
Double chanceSpain or draw ✓88% · @1.01
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓56% · @1.33
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.14
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗19% · fair 5.35

Spain vs Saudi Arabia: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

17:00 WAT, Sunday 21 June: Spain v Saudi Arabia in the World Cup, played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

Current form

Spain, last 5: DWDDW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Cape Verde Islands, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.4 scored, 0.4 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Saudi Arabia, last 5: DDWLL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Uruguay, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Spain, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.8 for Saudi Arabia.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Spain 1.6 xG, Saudi Arabia 0.6 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 50% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Spain 69%, draw 18%, Saudi Arabia 12%.
  • GG/NG: NG (56%) at 1.33.
  • Price worth noting: Under 2.5 goals @2.60 – the bookmaker implies 38%, our ratings say 50%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (70%, odds 1.67 – longer than our fair 1.43, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Spain 1–0 Saudi Arabia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Spain69%fair 1.44 · @1.11
Draw18%fair 5.45 · @8.60
Saudi Arabia12%fair 8.18 · @18.50
2.12Expected goals
1.55Spain xG
0.56Saudi Arabia xG
44%Both score
50%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–019%
2–015%
0–012%
1–111%
2–18%
3–08%

From our goals model: Spain 1.6 – 0.6 Saudi Arabia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultSpain to win ✓69%1.441.11
Double chanceSpain or draw ✓88%1.141.01
Both teams to scoreNot both teams to score ✓56%1.781.33
Draw no betSpain (draw no bet) ✓85%1.18–
Asian handicapSpain -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓62%1.62–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73%1.381.14
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗50%1.992.60 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗70%1.431.67 ▲
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓84%1.191.25 ▲
First team to scoreSpain to score first ✓65%1.55–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗46%2.16–
Half-time / full-timeHT Spain / FT Spain ✓38%2.65–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗19%5.35–

Recent results

Spain – last 5

DWDDW
15 Junvs Cape Verde Islands0–0D
9 Jun@ Peru3–1W
4 Junvs Iraq1–1D
31 Marvs Egypt0–0D
27 Marvs Serbia3–0W
1.4Scored / game
0.4Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5

Saudi Arabia – last 6

DDWLLL
15 Junvs Uruguay1–1D
10 Junvs Senegal0–0D
6 Jun@ Puerto Rico3–0W
31 May@ Ecuador1–2L
31 Mar@ Serbia1–2L
27 Marvs Egypt0–4L
1.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Spain and Saudi Arabia.

Spain vs Saudi Arabia head-to-head page →

More World Cup predictions

FT Ecuador0 Curaçao0 166%1.17X18%7.40217%13.00 2.2–1.3xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 63%@1.60 ✗
FT Tunisia0 Japan4 115%7.80X23%4.10262%1.44 1.1–2.3xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 78%@1.33 ✓
FT Belgium0 Iran0 164%1.42X21%4.35215%7.30 2.0–0.9xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 77%@1.25 ✗
FT Uruguay2 Cape Verde Islands2 162%1.47X22%4.00216%7.10 1.6–0.8xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 78%@1.22 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Spain vs Saudi Arabia?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.

Who will win Spain vs Saudi Arabia?

On our numbers Spain have a 69% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Saudi Arabia 12%.

How many goals will there be in Spain vs Saudi Arabia?

We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Spain vs Saudi Arabia?

Our predicted score is Spain 1–0 Saudi Arabia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.

When is Spain vs Saudi Arabia?

Spain vs Saudi Arabia (World Cup) kicks off on Sunday 21 June 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.