Botafogo vs Vitoria: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Vitoria travel to face Botafogo on Thursday 23 July in the Serie A, with Estádio Nilton Santos the venue – the ball rolls at 23:30 WAT. In the table, Botafogo are 11th, lower half, on 42 points after 34 matches; Vitoria are 15th (lower half) with 38.
Current form
Botafogo, last 5: WLWWW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Santos, at home. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately.
Vitoria, last 5: WWWLW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Vasco DA Gama, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.7 goals per game.
Momentum favours Vitoria, collecting 2.5 points per game to 2.0 for Botafogo.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Botafogo 1.7 xG, Vitoria 1.0 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 56%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Botafogo 54%, draw 26%, Vitoria 20%.
Lower-risk option: Botafogo or draw (80%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.73.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (74%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Botafogo 1–1 Vitoria. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Botafogo54%fair 1.86 · @1.73
Draw26%fair 3.86 · @3.65
Vitoria20%fair 4.95 · @4.60
2.64Expected goals
1.67Botafogo xG
0.97Vitoria xG
56%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–012%
1–112%
2–010%
2–110%
0–07%
0–17%
From our goals model: Botafogo 1.7 – 1.0 Vitoria expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Botafogo
Vitoria
Attack vs Serie A average
-23%
-32%
Goals conceded vs average
+6%
+16%
Our expected goals here
1.36
0.83
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Botafogo to win✗
54%
1.86
1.73
Double chance
Botafogo or draw✓
80%
1.25
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.80
1.73
Draw no bet
Botafogo (draw no bet)
73%
1.38
–
Asian handicap
Vitoria +1 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
74%
1.34
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.96
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.42
1.38
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
1.14
First team to score
Botafogo to score first✗
59%
1.70
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.39
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Botafogo / FT Botafogo✗
33%
3.04
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.35
–
Recent results
Botafogo – last 6
WLWWWL
16 Jul
vs Santos
2–1
W
30 May
@ Bahia
1–2
L
27 May
@ Caracas FC
3–1
W
21 May
@ Independiente Petrolero
3–0
W
17 May
vs Corinthians
3–1
W
14 May
@ Chapecoense-sc
0–2
L
2.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Vitoria – last 6
WWWLWW
16 Jul
vs Vasco DA Gama
1–0
W
6 Jun
vs Fortaleza EC
2–1
W
3 Jun
@ Fortaleza EC
2–1
W
31 May
@ Santos
1–3
L
28 May
@ ABC
4–3
W
21 May
vs ABC
6–2
W
2.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Botafogo and Vitoria.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Botafogo vs Vitoria?
On our numbers Botafogo have a 54% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Vitoria 20%.
How many goals will there be in Botafogo vs Vitoria?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Botafogo vs Vitoria?
Our predicted score is Botafogo 1–1 Vitoria, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Botafogo vs Vitoria?
Botafogo vs Vitoria (Serie A) kicks off on Thursday 23 July 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Nilton Santos.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
