Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Atletico Paranaense travel to face Sao Paulo on Thursday 23 July in the Serie A, with Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques the venue – the ball rolls at 01:30 WAT. In the table, Sao Paulo are 10th, upper half, on 44 points after 34 matches; Atletico Paranaense are 5th (upper half) with 54.
Current form
Sao Paulo, last 5: LWDLD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Remo, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Atletico Paranaense, last 5: LLWWD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to RB Bragantino, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 3 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sao Paulo 1.4 xG, Atletico Paranaense 1.1 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 53%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sao Paulo 45%, draw 27%, Atletico Paranaense 28%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.91.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (77%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sao Paulo 1–1 Atletico Paranaense. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sao Paulo45%fair 2.21 · @1.96
Draw27%fair 3.71 · @3.15
Atletico Paranaense28%fair 3.58 · @4.10
2.42Expected goals
1.37Sao Paulo xG
1.05Atletico Paranaense xG
53%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–012%
0–19%
0–09%
2–19%
2–08%
From our goals model: Sao Paulo 1.4 – 1.1 Atletico Paranaense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Sao Paulo
Atletico Paranaense
Attack vs Serie A average
-22%
+14%
Goals conceded vs average
-14%
+15%
Our expected goals here
1.37
1.12
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sao Paulo to win✗
45%
2.21
1.96
Double chance
Either team to win✓
73%
1.37
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.89
1.91
Draw no bet
Sao Paulo (draw no bet)✗
62%
1.62
–
Asian handicap
Atletico Paranaense +1 (Asian handicap)✓
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.46
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.76
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
1.07
First team to score
Sao Paulo to score first✓
51%
1.94
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sao Paulo / FT Sao Paulo✗
26%
3.89
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.44
–
Recent results
Sao Paulo – last 6
LWDLDD
1 Jun
@ Remo
0–1
L
26 May
vs Boston River
2–0
W
20 May
vs Millonarios
1–1
D
13 May
@ Juventude
1–3
L
7 May
@ O'Higgins
0–0
D
29 Apr
@ Millonarios
0–0
D
0.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Atletico Paranaense – last 6
LLWWDL
11 Jul
@ RB Bragantino
1–2
L
9 Jul
@ Boca Juniors
0–1
L
30 May
vs Mirassol
1–0
W
24 May
@ Remo
2–1
W
17 May
vs Flamengo
1–1
D
11 May
@ Vasco DA Gama
0–1
L
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sao Paulo and Atletico Paranaense.
What is the prediction for Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense?
On our numbers Sao Paulo have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Atletico Paranaense 28%.
How many goals will there be in Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our predicted score is Sao Paulo 1–1 Atletico Paranaense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense?
Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense (Serie A) kicks off on Thursday 23 July 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
