Value bet: Atletico-MG to win @ 3.35 – our chance 33% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultGremio to win ✓39% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓72% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.77
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓8% · fair 11.89
Gremio vs Atletico-MG: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
01:30 WAT, Thursday 26 February: Gremio v Atletico-MG in the Serie A, played at Arena do Grêmio. In the table, Gremio are 18th, in the drop zone, on 37 points after 34 matches; Atletico-MG are 7th (upper half) with 50. There are 13 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Gremio 1.4 xG, Atletico-MG 1.4 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 59%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Gremio 39%, draw 28%, Atletico-MG 33%.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.77.
Price worth noting: Atletico-MG to win @3.35 – the bookmaker implies 30%, our ratings say 33%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (74%, odds 1.33). Most likely score in line with that pick: Gremio 1–1 Atletico-MG. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Gremio39%fair 2.57 · @2.20
Draw28%fair 3.60 · @3.20
Atletico-MG33%fair 3.00 · @3.35
2.82Expected goals
1.42Gremio xG
1.40Atletico-MG xG
59%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–08%
2–18%
0–18%
1–28%
2–06%
From our goals model: Gremio 1.4 – 1.4 Atletico-MG expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Gremio
Atletico-MG
Attack vs Serie A average
-16%
-3%
Goals conceded vs average
+2%
-20%
Our expected goals here
1.03
1.13
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Gremio to win✓
39%
2.57
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✓
72%
1.38
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.71
1.77
Draw no bet
Gremio (draw no bet)✓
54%
1.86
–
Asian handicap
Atletico-MG +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
50%
1.99
1.75
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
1.09
First team to score
Gremio to score first
47%
2.11
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.43
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Gremio / FT Gremio✗
22%
4.54
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
8%
11.89
–
Recent results
Gremio – last 1
D
15 Feb
vs Juventude
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Atletico-MG – last 2
DW
22 Feb
vs America Mineiro
1–1
D
14 Feb
@ Itabirito
7–2
W
4.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
100%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Gremio and Atletico-MG.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Gremio vs Atletico-MG?
On our numbers Gremio have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Atletico-MG 33%.
How many goals will there be in Gremio vs Atletico-MG?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Gremio vs Atletico-MG?
Our predicted score is Gremio 1–1 Atletico-MG, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Gremio vs Atletico-MG?
Gremio vs Atletico-MG (Serie A) kicks off on Thursday 26 February 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena do Grêmio.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
