Palmeiras vs Fluminense: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Thursday 26 February the Serie A brings Palmeiras against Fluminense at Arena Barueri. Kick-off: 01:30 WAT. In the table, Palmeiras are 2nd, among the top four, on 73 points after 34 matches; Fluminense are 4th (among the top four) with 57. There are 16 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Palmeiras, last 3: WDW Their latest outing: 4–0 win over Capivariano, at home. 2.7 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Palmeiras 2.0 xG, Fluminense 0.9 xG – a total near 2.9. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 53% and GG at 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Palmeiras 61%, draw 22%, Fluminense 16%.
Lower-risk option: Palmeiras or draw (84%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.80.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Palmeiras 2–0 Fluminense. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Palmeiras61%fair 1.63 · @1.67
Draw22%fair 4.45 · @3.65
Fluminense16%fair 6.23 · @5.10
2.92Expected goals
2.03Palmeiras xG
0.90Fluminense xG
56%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–011%
1–011%
2–110%
1–110%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Palmeiras 2.0 – 0.9 Fluminense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Palmeiras
Fluminense
Attack vs Serie A average
+41%
+22%
Goals conceded vs average
-42%
-8%
Our expected goals here
1.98
0.81
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Palmeiras to win✓
61%
1.63
1.67
Double chance
Palmeiras or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.79
1.80
Draw no bet
Palmeiras (draw no bet)✓
79%
1.26
–
Asian handicap
Palmeiras -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.88
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
1.33
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
1.11
First team to score
Palmeiras to score first
66%
1.52
–
Half-time result
Palmeiras ahead at half-time✓
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Palmeiras / FT Palmeiras✓
41%
2.45
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
10%
10.10
–
Recent results
Palmeiras – last 3
WDW
22 Feb
vs Capivariano
4–0
W
16 Feb
vs Guarani Campinas
1–1
D
13 Feb
@ Internacional
3–1
W
2.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Fluminense – last 2
WW
22 Feb
@ Vasco DA Gama
1–0
W
16 Feb
vs Bangu
3–1
W
2.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Palmeiras and Fluminense.
What is the prediction for Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
On our numbers Palmeiras have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Fluminense 16%.
How many goals will there be in Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
Our predicted score is Palmeiras 2–0 Fluminense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
Palmeiras vs Fluminense (Serie A) kicks off on Thursday 26 February 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena Barueri.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
