00:00 WAT, Thursday 12 March: Bahia v Vitoria in the Serie A, played at Arena Fonte Nova. In the table, Bahia are 6th, upper half, on 53 points after 34 matches; Vitoria are 15th (lower half) with 38. There are 15 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Bahia 1.9 xG, Vitoria 0.9 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Bahia 59%, draw 23%, Vitoria 18%.
Lower-risk option: Bahia or draw (82%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.80.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (74%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Bahia 2–0 Vitoria. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Bahia59%fair 1.70 · @1.73
Draw23%fair 4.35 · @3.60
Vitoria18%fair 5.53 · @4.70
2.72Expected goals
1.87Bahia xG
0.86Vitoria xG
55%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–012%
2–011%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
0–07%
From our goals model: Bahia 1.9 – 0.9 Vitoria expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Bahia
Vitoria
Attack vs Serie A average
+9%
-32%
Goals conceded vs average
+0%
+16%
Our expected goals here
1.93
0.78
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bahia to win✗
59%
1.70
1.73
Double chance
Bahia or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.82
1.80
Draw no bet
Bahia (draw no bet)
77%
1.31
–
Asian handicap
Bahia -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
50%
1.99
1.91
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.33
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.17
1.11
First team to score
Bahia to score first
64%
1.56
–
Half-time result
Bahia ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bahia / FT Bahia✗
39%
2.59
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.21
–
Recent results
Bahia – last 2
WL
22 Feb
@ Atlético Alagoinhas
4–2
W
18 Feb
@ O'Higgins
0–1
L
2.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Vitoria – last 2
WW
22 Feb
vs Galícia
3–0
W
18 Feb
vs Bahia de Feira
1–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bahia and Vitoria.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Bahia vs Vitoria?
On our numbers Bahia have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Vitoria 18%.
How many goals will there be in Bahia vs Vitoria?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bahia vs Vitoria?
Our predicted score is Bahia 2–0 Vitoria, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Bahia vs Vitoria?
Bahia vs Vitoria (Serie A) kicks off on Thursday 12 March 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Arena Fonte Nova.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
