Value bet: Palmeiras to win @ 2.28 – our chance 49% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultPalmeiras to win ✗49% · @2.28
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.30
Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
23:30 WAT, Thursday 12 March: Vasco DA Gama v Palmeiras in the Serie A, played at Estádio São Januário. In the table, Vasco DA Gama are 13th, lower half, on 41 points after 33 matches; Palmeiras are 2nd (among the top four) with 73. There are 32 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Palmeiras, last 5: WWWWW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Novorizontino, away. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Vasco DA Gama 1.1 xG, Palmeiras 1.7 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 53%, GG 58%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Vasco DA Gama 26%, draw 25%, Palmeiras 49%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.65.
Price worth noting: Palmeiras to win @2.28 – the bookmaker implies 44%, our ratings say 49%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Vasco DA Gama 1–1 Palmeiras. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Vasco DA Gama26%fair 3.80 · @3.00
Draw25%fair 3.99 · @3.35
Palmeiras49%fair 2.06 · @2.28
2.85Expected goals
1.12Vasco DA Gama xG
1.74Palmeiras xG
58%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
0–110%
1–210%
0–29%
1–06%
2–16%
From our goals model: Vasco DA Gama 1.1 – 1.7 Palmeiras expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Vasco DA Gama
Palmeiras
Attack vs Serie A average
+8%
+41%
Goals conceded vs average
+6%
-42%
Our expected goals here
0.96
1.70
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Palmeiras to win✗
49%
2.06
2.28 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.71
1.65
Draw no bet
Palmeiras (draw no bet)✗
65%
1.54
–
Asian handicap
Vasco DA Gama +1 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.90
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.35
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
1.12
First team to score
Palmeiras to score first✓
57%
1.74
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.48
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Palmeiras / FT Palmeiras✗
32%
3.15
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.30
–
Recent results
Vasco DA Gama – last 2
LL
26 Feb
@ Santos
1–2
L
22 Feb
vs Fluminense
0–1
L
0.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Palmeiras – last 6
WWWWWD
9 Mar
@ Novorizontino
2–1
W
5 Mar
vs Novorizontino
1–0
W
2 Mar
vs Sao Paulo
2–1
W
26 Feb
vs Fluminense
2–1
W
22 Feb
vs Capivariano
4–0
W
16 Feb
vs Guarani Campinas
1–1
D
2.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Vasco DA Gama and Palmeiras.
What is the prediction for Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras?
On our numbers Vasco DA Gama have a 26% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Palmeiras 49%.
How many goals will there be in Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras?
Our predicted score is Vasco DA Gama 1–1 Palmeiras, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras?
Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras (Serie A) kicks off on Thursday 12 March 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio São Januário.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
