Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 58% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultFlamengo to win ✓62% · @1.56
Double chanceFlamengo or draw ✓84% · @1.11
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.95
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.06
Flamengo vs Cruzeiro: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Flamengo welcome Cruzeiro to Estádio do Maracanã for a Serie A fixture on Thursday 12 March (01:30 WAT). In the table, Flamengo are 1st, leading the league, on 76 points after 34 matches; Cruzeiro are 3rd (among the top four) with 60. There are 16 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Flamengo, last 5: WWWLW Their latest outing: 8–0 win over Madureira, away. Scoring is no problem – 3.0 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Flamengo 2.1 xG, Cruzeiro 1.0 xG – a total near 3.1. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 54% and GG at 58%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Flamengo 62%, draw 22%, Cruzeiro 16%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 58%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.33). Most likely score in line with that pick: Flamengo 2–0 Cruzeiro. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Flamengo62%fair 1.60 · @1.56
Draw22%fair 4.58 · @3.75
Cruzeiro16%fair 6.30 · @6.00
3.05Expected goals
2.08Flamengo xG
0.97Cruzeiro xG
58%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–010%
2–110%
1–010%
1–110%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Flamengo 2.1 – 1.0 Cruzeiro expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Flamengo
Cruzeiro
Attack vs Serie A average
+54%
+35%
Goals conceded vs average
-29%
-1%
Our expected goals here
2.33
1.09
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Flamengo to win✓
62%
1.60
1.56
Double chance
Flamengo or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.11
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.72
1.95 ▲
Draw no bet
Flamengo (draw no bet)✓
80%
1.25
–
Asian handicap
Flamengo -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.86
1.95
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.30
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
1.10
First team to score
Flamengo to score first✓
65%
1.54
–
Half-time result
Flamengo ahead at half-time✓
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Flamengo / FT Flamengo✓
41%
2.47
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.06
–
Recent results
Flamengo – last 5
WWWLW
3 Mar
@ Madureira
8–0
W
27 Feb
vs Lanus
2–1
W
23 Feb
vs Madureira
3–0
W
20 Feb
@ Lanus
0–1
L
15 Feb
@ Botafogo
2–1
W
3.0Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
40%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
Cruzeiro – last 2
DW
26 Feb
vs Corinthians
1–1
D
14 Feb
@ Uniao Trabalhadores
2–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Flamengo and Cruzeiro.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Flamengo vs Cruzeiro?
On our numbers Flamengo have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Cruzeiro 16%.
How many goals will there be in Flamengo vs Cruzeiro?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Flamengo vs Cruzeiro?
Our predicted score is Flamengo 2–0 Cruzeiro, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Flamengo vs Cruzeiro?
Flamengo vs Cruzeiro (Serie A) kicks off on Thursday 12 March 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio do Maracanã.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
