Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
Picks by market
ResultGremio to win ✓54% · @1.85
Double chanceGremio or draw ✓81% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.30
Gremio vs Vitoria: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Gremio welcome Vitoria to Arena do Grêmio for a Serie A fixture on Thursday 19 March (23:00 WAT). In the table, Gremio are 18th, in the drop zone, on 37 points after 34 matches; Vitoria are 15th (lower half) with 38. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Gremio, last 4: DDWD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Chapecoense-sc, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Vitoria, last 3: DWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Bahia, away. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Vitoria, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.5 for Gremio.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Gremio 1.7 xG, Vitoria 0.9 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 55%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Gremio 54%, draw 27%, Vitoria 19%.
Lower-risk option: Gremio or draw (81%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.80.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Gremio or draw (81%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Gremio 1–0 Vitoria. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Gremio54%fair 1.86 · @1.85
Draw27%fair 3.75 · @3.50
Vitoria19%fair 5.14 · @4.10
2.65Expected goals
1.71Gremio xG
0.94Vitoria xG
55%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–012%
1–111%
2–010%
2–110%
0–07%
0–17%
From our goals model: Gremio 1.7 – 0.9 Vitoria expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Gremio
Vitoria
Attack vs Serie A average
-16%
-32%
Goals conceded vs average
+2%
+16%
Our expected goals here
1.48
0.80
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Gremio to win✓
54%
1.86
1.85
Double chance
Gremio or draw✓
81%
1.24
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.80
1.80
Draw no bet
Gremio (draw no bet)✓
73%
1.36
–
Asian handicap
Vitoria +1.5 (Asian handicap)✗
69%
1.44
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.96
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.38
1.30
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
1.10
First team to score
Gremio to score first✓
60%
1.67
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.40
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Gremio / FT Gremio✓
34%
2.92
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.30
–
Recent results
Gremio – last 4
DDWD
17 Mar
@ Chapecoense-sc
1–1
D
13 Mar
vs RB Bragantino
1–1
D
26 Feb
vs Atletico-MG
2–1
W
15 Feb
vs Juventude
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Vitoria – last 3
DWW
12 Mar
@ Bahia
1–1
D
22 Feb
vs Galícia
3–0
W
18 Feb
vs Bahia de Feira
1–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Gremio and Vitoria.
Our pick is Gremio or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Gremio vs Vitoria?
On our numbers Gremio have a 54% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Vitoria 19%.
How many goals will there be in Gremio vs Vitoria?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Gremio vs Vitoria?
Our predicted score is Gremio 1–0 Vitoria, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Gremio vs Vitoria?
Gremio vs Vitoria (Serie A) kicks off on Thursday 19 March 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Arena do Grêmio.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
