Value bet: Vasco DA Gama to win @ 3.60 – our chance 32% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultFluminense to win ✗42% · @2.12
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗74% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.59
Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Thursday 19 March the Serie A brings Vasco DA Gama against Fluminense at Estádio do Maracanã. Kick-off: 01:30 WAT. In the table, Vasco DA Gama are 13th, lower half, on 41 points after 33 matches; Fluminense are 4th (among the top four) with 57. There are 16 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Vasco DA Gama, last 4: DWLL Their latest outing: 3–3 draw with Cruzeiro, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Fluminense, last 5: WWLWW Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Atletico Paranaense, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. 2.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Fluminense, collecting 2.4 points per game to 1.0 for Vasco DA Gama.
Head to head
When they last met (22 Feb 2026) it ended Vasco DA Gama 0–1 Fluminense.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Vasco DA Gama 1.3 xG, Fluminense 1.4 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 53%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Vasco DA Gama 32%, draw 26%, Fluminense 42%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Vasco DA Gama to win @3.60 – the bookmaker implies 28%, our ratings say 32%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (72%, odds 1.40). Most likely score in line with that pick: Vasco DA Gama 1–1 Fluminense. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Vasco DA Gama32%fair 3.11 · @3.60
Draw26%fair 3.85 · @3.15
Fluminense42%fair 2.39 · @2.12
2.77Expected goals
1.33Vasco DA Gama xG
1.44Fluminense xG
53%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–19%
1–29%
1–08%
2–18%
0–26%
From our goals model: Vasco DA Gama 1.3 – 1.4 Fluminense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Vasco DA Gama
Fluminense
Attack vs Serie A average
+8%
+22%
Goals conceded vs average
+6%
-8%
Our expected goals here
1.52
1.47
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
What is the prediction for Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense?
On our numbers Vasco DA Gama have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Fluminense 42%.
How many goals will there be in Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense?
Our predicted score is Vasco DA Gama 1–1 Fluminense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense?
Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense (Serie A) kicks off on Thursday 19 March 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio do Maracanã.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
