Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.93 – our chance 56% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultMirassol to win ✗57% · @1.72
Double chanceMirassol or draw ✗83% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.93
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.37
Mirassol vs Coritiba: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Coritiba travel to face Mirassol on Thursday 19 March in the Serie A, with Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia the venue – the ball rolls at 00:00 WAT. In the table, Mirassol are 14th, lower half, on 40 points after 34 matches; Coritiba are 12th (lower half) with 42. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Mirassol 1.7 xG, Coritiba 0.9 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Mirassol 57%, draw 26%, Coritiba 17%.
Lower-risk option: Mirassol or draw (83%) at 1.15.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.93.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.93 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 56%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (74%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Mirassol 1–0 Coritiba. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Mirassol57%fair 1.76 · @1.72
Draw26%fair 3.87 · @3.35
Coritiba17%fair 5.82 · @5.20
2.58Expected goals
1.71Mirassol xG
0.88Coritiba xG
56%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
1–111%
2–011%
2–110%
0–08%
0–17%
From our goals model: Mirassol 1.7 – 0.9 Coritiba expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Mirassol
Coritiba
Attack vs Serie A average
-9%
-20%
Goals conceded vs average
-2%
+18%
Our expected goals here
1.65
0.90
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mirassol to win✗
57%
1.76
1.72
Double chance
Mirassol or draw✗
83%
1.21
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.79
1.93 ▲
Draw no bet
Mirassol (draw no bet)✗
77%
1.30
–
Asian handicap
Coritiba +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
68%
1.46
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
71%
1.40
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.87
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
1.08
First team to score
Mirassol to score first✗
61%
1.64
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.38
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mirassol / FT Mirassol✗
35%
2.85
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.37
–
Recent results
Mirassol – last 2
DL
11 Mar
vs Santos
2–2
D
16 Feb
vs Portuguesa
1–2
L
1.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Coritiba – last 2
WL
12 Mar
@ Corinthians
2–0
W
25 Feb
vs Sao Paulo
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mirassol and Coritiba.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Mirassol vs Coritiba?
On our numbers Mirassol have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Coritiba 17%.
How many goals will there be in Mirassol vs Coritiba?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mirassol vs Coritiba?
Our predicted score is Mirassol 1–0 Coritiba, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Mirassol vs Coritiba?
Mirassol vs Coritiba (Serie A) kicks off on Thursday 19 March 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
