Atletico-MG v Fluminense Prediction & Expected Goals (12 Sep) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultAtletico-MG to win ✓41% · @2.20

Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.36

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.95

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.35

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.63

Atletico-MG vs Fluminense: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

20:00 WAT, Saturday 12 September: Atletico-MG v Fluminense in the Serie A, played at MRV Arena. In the table, Atletico-MG are 7th, upper half, on 50 points after 34 matches; Fluminense are 4th (among the top four) with 57.

Current form

Atletico-MG, last 5: LLWWD Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Santos, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.

Fluminense, last 5: WWDWD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Platense, at home. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately.

Momentum favours Fluminense, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.3 for Atletico-MG.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Atletico-MG 1.4 xG, Fluminense 1.2 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 54%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Atletico-MG 41%, draw 24%, Fluminense 35%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: Fluminense to win @3.20 – the bookmaker implies 31%, our ratings say 35%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (54%, odds 1.95 – longer than our fair 1.85, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Atletico-MG 1–1 Fluminense. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Atletico-MG41%fair 2.43 · @2.20

Draw24%fair 4.15 · @3.00

Fluminense35%fair 2.88 · @3.20

2.63Expected goals

1.38Atletico-MG xG

1.25Fluminense xG

54%Both score

49%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–112%

1–010%

0–19%

2–19%

1–28%

0–07%

From our goals model: Atletico-MG 1.4 – 1.2 Fluminense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Atletico-MG to win ✓	41%	2.43	2.20
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	76%	1.32	1.36
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	54%	1.85	1.95 ▲
Draw no bet	Atletico-MG (draw no bet) ✓	54%	1.85	–
Asian handicap	Fluminense +1 (Asian handicap) ✗	76%	1.31	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	74%	1.35	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✗	51%	1.96	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✗	73%	1.37	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	87%	1.15	–
First team to score	Atletico-MG to score first	49%	2.05	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✓	43%	2.33	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Atletico-MG / FT Atletico-MG ✗	23%	4.28	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	9%	11.63	–

Atletico-MG – last 6

LLWWDD

9 Sep	@ Santos	0–2	L
5 Sep	@ Sao Paulo	0–2	L
2 Sep	vs Cruzeiro	2–1	W
29 Aug	vs Vitoria	2–1	W
26 Aug	@ Cruzeiro	1–1	D
22 Aug	@ Internacional	0–0	D

0.8Scored / game

1.2Conceded / game

50%Both scored

33%Over 2.5

Fluminense – last 6

WWDWDW

8 Sep	vs Platense	2–0	W
6 Sep	vs Vasco DA Gama	1–0	W
30 Aug	@ Atletico Paranaense	3–3	D
22 Aug	vs Remo	2–1	W
18 Aug	@ Independ. Rivadavia	1–1	D
15 Aug	vs Palmeiras	3–2	W

2.0Scored / game

1.2Conceded / game

67%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Flamengo	34	23	7	4	+42	76
2	Palmeiras	34	21	10	3	+39	73
3	Cruzeiro	34	18	6	10	+7	60
4	Fluminense	34	16	9	9	+13	57
5	Atletico Paranaense	34	15	9	10	+8	54
6	Bahia	34	14	11	9	+5	53
7	Atletico-MG	34	14	8	12	+4	50
8	RB Bragantino	34	13	8	13	+5	47
9	Santos	34	12	11	11	+1	47
10	Sao Paulo	34	12	8	14	0	44
11	Botafogo	34	11	9	14	-7	42
12	Coritiba	34	11	9	14	-11	42
13	Vasco DA Gama	33	11	8	14	-7	41
14	Mirassol	34	10	10	14	-9	40
15	Vitoria	34	10	8	16	-16	38
16	Internacional	34	9	11	14	-4	38
17	Corinthians	34	9	10	15	-6	37
18	Gremio	34	9	10	15	-9	37
19	Remo	34	6	11	17	-20	29
20	Chapecoense-sc	33	4	9	20	-35	21

Team

Pts

+42

+39

+13

-7

-11

-7

-9

-16

-4

-6

-9

-20

-35

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Atletico-MG vs Fluminense?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.

Who will win Atletico-MG vs Fluminense?

On our numbers Atletico-MG have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Fluminense 35%.

How many goals will there be in Atletico-MG vs Fluminense?

We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Atletico-MG vs Fluminense?

Our predicted score is Atletico-MG 1–1 Fluminense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.

When is Atletico-MG vs Fluminense?

Atletico-MG vs Fluminense (Serie A) kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at MRV Arena.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Atletico-MG v Fluminense: numbers & prediction