Palmeiras 62%Draw 23%Sao Paulo 15%Expected goals 1.74 – 0.71
62%
Betarazi pick
Palmeiras to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.62 · bookmaker 1.65 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.65Odds
Picks by market
ResultPalmeiras to win ✓62% · @1.65
Double chancePalmeiras or draw ✓85% · @1.15
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.67
Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 12 September the Serie A brings Palmeiras against Sao Paulo at Allianz Parque. Kick-off: 22:30 WAT. In the table, Palmeiras are 2nd, among the top four, on 73 points after 34 matches; Sao Paulo are 10th (upper half) with 44. There are 29 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Palmeiras, last 5: WDDDW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over LDU de Quito, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Sao Paulo, last 5: LWWLW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Boca Juniors, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Head to head
When they last met (22 Mar 2026) it ended Sao Paulo 0–1 Palmeiras. The last 2 head-to-heads: Palmeiras 2 wins, Sao Paulo 0, draws 0. Those games averaged 2.0 goals and saw GG land 1 time.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Palmeiras 1.7 xG, Sao Paulo 0.7 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 48%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Palmeiras 62%, draw 23%, Sao Paulo 15%.
Lower-risk option: Palmeiras or draw (85%) at 1.15.
GG/NG: NG (52%) at 1.83.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Palmeiras to win (62%, odds 1.65 – longer than our fair 1.62, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Palmeiras 1–0 Sao Paulo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Palmeiras62%fair 1.62 · @1.65
Draw23%fair 4.29 · @3.50
Sao Paulo15%fair 6.74 · @5.00
2.45Expected goals
1.74Palmeiras xG
0.71Sao Paulo xG
48%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
2–013%
1–111%
2–19%
0–09%
3–08%
From our goals model: Palmeiras 1.7 – 0.7 Sao Paulo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo?
Our pick is Palmeiras to win with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.
Who will win Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo?
On our numbers Palmeiras have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Sao Paulo 15%.
How many goals will there be in Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo?
Our predicted score is Palmeiras 1–0 Sao Paulo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo?
Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo (Serie A) kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time) at Allianz Parque.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
