Coritiba v Atletico Paranaense Prediction & Expected Goals (12 Sep) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultAtletico Paranaense to win ✗40% · @2.30

Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.35

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.80

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗74% · fair 1.36

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 11.92

Coritiba vs Atletico Paranaense: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Coritiba welcome Atletico Paranaense for a Serie A fixture on Saturday 12 September (01:00 WAT). In the table, Coritiba are 12th, lower half, on 42 points after 34 matches; Atletico Paranaense are 5th (upper half) with 54. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.

Current form

Coritiba, last 5: LWWDW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Mirassol, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.

Atletico Paranaense, last 5: LDWDW Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Cruzeiro, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 2.2 conceded per game.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Coritiba 1.3 xG, Atletico Paranaense 1.3 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 59%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Coritiba 36%, draw 24%, Atletico Paranaense 40%.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Coritiba to win @3.00 – the bookmaker implies 33%, our ratings say 36%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (59%, odds 1.80 – longer than our fair 1.69, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Coritiba 1–1 Atletico Paranaense. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Coritiba36%fair 2.76 · @3.00

Draw24%fair 4.15 · @3.00

Atletico Paranaense40%fair 2.51 · @2.30

2.60Expected goals

1.26Coritiba xG

1.34Atletico Paranaense xG

59%Both score

48%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–113%

0–110%

1–09%

1–28%

2–18%

0–07%

From our goals model: Coritiba 1.3 – 1.3 Atletico Paranaense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Atletico Paranaense to win ✗	40%	2.51	2.30
Double chance	Either team to win ✗	76%	1.32	1.35
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	59%	1.69	1.80 ▲
Draw no bet	Atletico Paranaense (draw no bet)	52%	1.91	–
Asian handicap	Coritiba +0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓	61%	1.63	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	73%	1.36	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✗	52%	1.93	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✗	74%	1.36	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✗	88%	1.14	–
First team to score	Atletico Paranaense to score first	48%	2.10	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✗	43%	2.32	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Atletico Paranaense / FT Atletico Paranaense ✗	22%	4.48	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–2 ✗	8%	11.92	–

Coritiba – last 6

LWWDWL

6 Sep	vs Mirassol	1–2	L
1 Sep	@ Remo	3–2	W
23 Aug	vs Corinthians	2–1	W
16 Aug	@ Sao Paulo	1–1	D
9 Aug	vs Chapecoense-sc	2–1	W
31 Jul	vs Cruzeiro	0–1	L

1.5Scored / game

1.3Conceded / game

83%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

Atletico Paranaense – last 6

LDWDWL

6 Sep	@ Cruzeiro	1–3	L
30 Aug	vs Fluminense	3–3	D
25 Aug	@ Botafogo	3–2	W
15 Aug	vs RB Bragantino	1–1	D
9 Aug	@ Santos	2–0	W
7 Aug	@ Vitoria	0–4	L

1.7Scored / game

2.2Conceded / game

67%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Flamengo	34	23	7	4	+42	76
2	Palmeiras	34	21	10	3	+39	73
3	Cruzeiro	34	18	6	10	+7	60
4	Fluminense	34	16	9	9	+13	57
5	Atletico Paranaense	34	15	9	10	+8	54
6	Bahia	34	14	11	9	+5	53
7	Atletico-MG	34	14	8	12	+4	50
8	RB Bragantino	34	13	8	13	+5	47
9	Santos	34	12	11	11	+1	47
10	Sao Paulo	34	12	8	14	0	44
11	Botafogo	34	11	9	14	-7	42
12	Coritiba	34	11	9	14	-11	42
13	Vasco DA Gama	33	11	8	14	-7	41
14	Mirassol	34	10	10	14	-9	40
15	Vitoria	34	10	8	16	-16	38
16	Internacional	34	9	11	14	-4	38
17	Corinthians	34	9	10	15	-6	37
18	Gremio	34	9	10	15	-9	37
19	Remo	34	6	11	17	-20	29
20	Chapecoense-sc	33	4	9	20	-35	21

Team

Pts

+42

+39

+13

-7

-11

-7

-9

-16

-4

-6

-9

-20

-35

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Coritiba vs Atletico Paranaense?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.

Who will win Coritiba vs Atletico Paranaense?

On our numbers Coritiba have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Atletico Paranaense 40%.

How many goals will there be in Coritiba vs Atletico Paranaense?

We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Coritiba vs Atletico Paranaense?

Our predicted score is Coritiba 1–1 Atletico Paranaense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.

When is Coritiba vs Atletico Paranaense?

Coritiba vs Atletico Paranaense (Serie A) kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Coritiba v Atletico Paranaense: numbers & prediction