Good pick · fair odds 1.69 · bookmaker 1.67 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.67Odds
2
Value bet: Bahia to win @ 3.30 – our chance 36% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAtletico Paranaense to win ✓42% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓9% · fair 11.54
Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Bahia travel to face Atletico Paranaense on Sunday 20 September in the Serie A, with Arena da Baixada the venue – the ball rolls at 23:30 WAT. In the table, Atletico Paranaense are 5th, upper half, on 54 points after 34 matches; Bahia are 6th (upper half) with 53. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Atletico Paranaense, last 5: DLDWD Their latest outing: 3–3 draw with Coritiba, away. 2.2 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Bahia, last 5: WWWWD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Remo, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.2 goals per game.
Momentum favours Bahia, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.5 for Atletico Paranaense.
Head to head
When they last met (2 Apr 2026) it ended Bahia 3–0 Atletico Paranaense.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Atletico Paranaense 1.4 xG, Bahia 1.3 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 59%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Atletico Paranaense 42%, draw 23%, Bahia 36%.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: Bahia to win @3.30 – the bookmaker implies 30%, our ratings say 36%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (59%, odds 1.67). Most likely score in line with that pick: Atletico Paranaense 1–1 Bahia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Atletico Paranaense42%fair 2.40 · @2.10
Draw23%fair 4.42 · @3.25
Bahia36%fair 2.81 · @3.30
2.72Expected goals
1.43Atletico Paranaense xG
1.29Bahia xG
59%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–09%
2–19%
0–19%
1–28%
2–07%
From our goals model: Atletico Paranaense 1.4 – 1.3 Bahia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia?
On our numbers Atletico Paranaense have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Bahia 36%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia?
Our predicted score is Atletico Paranaense 1–1 Bahia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia?
Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena da Baixada.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
