Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Palmeiras to win @ 1.85 – our chance 59% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultPalmeiras to win ✗59% · @1.85
Double chancePalmeiras or draw ✓81% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.49
Gremio vs Palmeiras: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 20 September the Serie A brings Gremio against Palmeiras at Arena do Grêmio. Kick-off: 15:00 WAT. In the table, Gremio are 18th, in the drop zone, on 37 points after 34 matches; Palmeiras are 2nd (among the top four) with 73. There are 36 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Gremio, last 5: LLLWW Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Botafogo, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Palmeiras, last 5: LWWDD Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to LDU de Quito, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Head to head
When they last met (3 Apr 2026) it ended Palmeiras 2–1 Gremio.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Gremio 0.8 xG, Palmeiras 1.7 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Gremio 19%, draw 22%, Palmeiras 59%.
Lower-risk option: Palmeiras or draw (81%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.75.
Price worth noting: Palmeiras to win @1.85 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 59%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Palmeiras or draw (81%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Gremio 0–1 Palmeiras. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Gremio19%fair 5.16 · @3.90
Draw22%fair 4.54 · @3.40
Palmeiras59%fair 1.71 · @1.85
2.52Expected goals
0.83Gremio xG
1.69Palmeiras xG
56%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–114%
0–211%
1–111%
1–210%
0–08%
1–07%
From our goals model: Gremio 0.8 – 1.7 Palmeiras expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Palmeiras or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Gremio vs Palmeiras?
On our numbers Gremio have a 19% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Palmeiras 59%.
How many goals will there be in Gremio vs Palmeiras?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Gremio vs Palmeiras?
Our predicted score is Gremio 0–1 Palmeiras, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Gremio vs Palmeiras?
Gremio vs Palmeiras (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Arena do Grêmio.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
