Cruzeiro 64%Draw 23%Sao Paulo 12%Expected goals 1.90 – 0.73
64%
Betarazi pick
Cruzeiro to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.75 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.75Odds
Picks by market
ResultCruzeiro to win ✓64% · @1.75
Double chanceCruzeiro or draw ✓88% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.54
Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
01:30 WAT, Thursday 8 October: Cruzeiro v Sao Paulo in the Serie A, played at Estádio Mineirão. In the table, Cruzeiro are 3rd, among the top four, on 60 points after 34 matches; Sao Paulo are 10th (upper half) with 44. There are 16 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Cruzeiro, last 5: WLWLL Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Vitoria, away. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Sao Paulo, last 5: LWDLL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Santos, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Cruzeiro 1.9 xG, Sao Paulo 0.7 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Cruzeiro 64%, draw 23%, Sao Paulo 12%.
Lower-risk option: Cruzeiro or draw (88%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.80.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Cruzeiro to win (64%, odds 1.75 – longer than our fair 1.55, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Cruzeiro 1–0 Sao Paulo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Cruzeiro64%fair 1.55 · @1.75
Draw23%fair 4.32 · @3.40
Sao Paulo12%fair 8.00 · @4.50
2.63Expected goals
1.90Cruzeiro xG
0.73Sao Paulo xG
55%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
2–013%
1–110%
2–19%
3–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Cruzeiro 1.9 – 0.7 Sao Paulo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cruzeiro to win✓
64%
1.55
1.75 ▲
Double chance
Cruzeiro or draw✓
88%
1.14
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.81
1.80
Draw no bet
Cruzeiro (draw no bet)✓
84%
1.19
–
Asian handicap
Cruzeiro -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
65%
1.53
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.96
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
First team to score
Cruzeiro to score first✓
67%
1.49
–
Half-time result
Cruzeiro ahead at half-time✓
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cruzeiro / FT Cruzeiro✓
42%
2.40
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.54
–
Recent results
Cruzeiro – last 6
WLWLLD
20 Sep
@ Vitoria
3–1
W
13 Sep
@ Santos
1–2
L
6 Sep
vs Atletico Paranaense
3–1
W
2 Sep
@ Atletico-MG
1–2
L
30 Aug
@ Vasco DA Gama
1–3
L
26 Aug
vs Atletico-MG
1–1
D
1.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
100%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Sao Paulo – last 6
LWDLLW
3 Oct
vs Santos
1–2
L
20 Sep
vs Internacional
1–0
W
16 Sep
vs Boca Juniors
1–1
D
12 Sep
@ Palmeiras
0–2
L
9 Sep
@ Boca Juniors
0–1
L
5 Sep
vs Atletico-MG
2–0
W
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cruzeiro and Sao Paulo.
Our pick is Cruzeiro to win with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo?
On our numbers Cruzeiro have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Sao Paulo 12%.
How many goals will there be in Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo?
Our predicted score is Cruzeiro 1–0 Sao Paulo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo?
Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo (Serie A) kicks off on Thursday 8 October 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Mineirão.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
