Sao Paulo v Vasco DA Gama Prediction & Expected Goals (18 Oct) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultSao Paulo to win ✓41% · @2.15

Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.33

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.85

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.94

Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Vasco DA Gama travel to face Sao Paulo on Sunday 18 October in the Serie A, with Morumbi the venue – the ball rolls at 01:00 WAT. In the table, Sao Paulo are 10th, upper half, on 44 points after 34 matches; Vasco DA Gama are 13th (lower half) with 41. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

Sao Paulo, last 5: WLLWD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Vitoria, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.

Vasco DA Gama, last 5: WDWWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Boca Juniors, away. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.

Momentum favours Vasco DA Gama, collecting 2.7 points per game to 1.2 for Sao Paulo.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Sao Paulo 1.3 xG, Vasco DA Gama 1.2 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 52%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Sao Paulo 41%, draw 23%, Vasco DA Gama 36%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Vasco DA Gama to win @3.25 – the bookmaker implies 31%, our ratings say 36%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (52%, odds 1.85). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sao Paulo 1–1 Vasco DA Gama. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Sao Paulo41%fair 2.43 · @2.15

Draw23%fair 4.32 · @3.10

Vasco DA Gama36%fair 2.80 · @3.25

2.51Expected goals

1.31Sao Paulo xG

1.20Vasco DA Gama xG

52%Both score

46%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–113%

1–011%

0–110%

2–18%

0–08%

1–28%

From our goals model: Sao Paulo 1.3 – 1.2 Vasco DA Gama expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Sao Paulo to win ✓	41%	2.43	2.15
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	77%	1.30	1.33
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✗	52%	1.94	1.85
Draw no bet	Sao Paulo (draw no bet) ✓	53%	1.87	–
Asian handicap	Vasco DA Gama +0.5 (Asian handicap) ✗	61%	1.65	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✗	71%	1.40	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✓	54%	1.85	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	76%	1.32	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	89%	1.12	–
First team to score	Sao Paulo to score first ✓	48%	2.08	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✓	44%	2.27	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Sao Paulo / FT Sao Paulo ✗	23%	4.41	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	8%	11.94	–

Sao Paulo – last 6

WLLWDL

11 Oct	vs Vitoria	2–1	W
8 Oct	@ Cruzeiro	0–2	L
3 Oct	vs Santos	1–2	L
20 Sep	vs Internacional	1–0	W
16 Sep	vs Boca Juniors	1–1	D
12 Sep	@ Palmeiras	0–2	L

0.8Scored / game

1.3Conceded / game

50%Both scored

33%Over 2.5

Vasco DA Gama – last 6

WDWWWW

14 Oct	@ Boca Juniors	1–0	W
10 Oct	vs Remo	0–0	D
8 Oct	@ Botafogo	2–1	W
20 Sep	vs Coritiba	5–0	W
15 Sep	vs Santa Fe	2–0	W
12 Sep	@ Gremio	2–1	W

2.0Scored / game

0.3Conceded / game

33%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Flamengo	34	23	7	4	+42	76
2	Palmeiras	34	21	10	3	+39	73
3	Cruzeiro	34	18	6	10	+7	60
4	Fluminense	34	16	9	9	+13	57
5	Atletico Paranaense	34	15	9	10	+8	54
6	Bahia	34	14	11	9	+5	53
7	Atletico-MG	34	14	8	12	+4	50
8	RB Bragantino	34	13	8	13	+5	47
9	Santos	34	12	11	11	+1	47
10	Sao Paulo	34	12	8	14	0	44
11	Botafogo	34	11	9	14	-7	42
12	Coritiba	34	11	9	14	-11	42
13	Vasco DA Gama	33	11	8	14	-7	41
14	Mirassol	34	10	10	14	-9	40
15	Vitoria	34	10	8	16	-16	38
16	Internacional	34	9	11	14	-4	38
17	Corinthians	34	9	10	15	-6	37
18	Gremio	34	9	10	15	-9	37
19	Remo	34	6	11	17	-20	29
20	Chapecoense-sc	33	4	9	20	-35	21

Team

Pts

+42

+39

+13

-7

-11

-7

-9

-16

-4

-6

-9

-20

-35

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.

Who will win Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama?

On our numbers Sao Paulo have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Vasco DA Gama 36%.

How many goals will there be in Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama?

We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama?

Our predicted score is Sao Paulo 1–1 Vasco DA Gama, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.

When is Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama?

Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Morumbi.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Sao Paulo v Vasco DA Gama: numbers & prediction