Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Fluminense to win @ 1.80 – our chance 60% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultFluminense to win ✗60% · @1.80
Double chanceFluminense or draw ✗86% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.26
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.07
Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
23:30 WAT, Saturday 24 October: Chapecoense-sc v Fluminense in the Serie A, played at Arena Condá. In the table, Chapecoense-sc are 20th, in the drop zone, on 21 points after 33 matches; Fluminense are 4th (among the top four) with 57. There are 36 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Chapecoense-sc, last 5: LLLDD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Botafogo, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Fluminense, last 5: WLLLW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Palmeiras, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Fluminense, collecting 1.5 points per game to 0.3 for Chapecoense-sc.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Chapecoense-sc 0.9 xG, Fluminense 2.0 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 57% for three or more goals, 56% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Chapecoense-sc 14%, draw 26%, Fluminense 60%.
Lower-risk option: Fluminense or draw (86%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.73.
Price worth noting: Fluminense to win @1.80 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 60%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Fluminense or draw (86%, odds 1.22 – longer than our fair 1.16, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Chapecoense-sc 0–2 Fluminense. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Chapecoense-sc14%fair 7.10 · @4.00
Draw26%fair 3.88 · @3.40
Fluminense60%fair 1.66 · @1.80
2.95Expected goals
0.93Chapecoense-sc xG
2.02Fluminense xG
56%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–211%
0–111%
1–210%
1–110%
0–37%
1–37%
From our goals model: Chapecoense-sc 0.9 – 2.0 Fluminense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Fluminense to win✗
60%
1.66
1.80 ▲
Double chance
Fluminense or draw✗
86%
1.16
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.78
1.73
Draw no bet
Fluminense (draw no bet)✗
81%
1.23
–
Asian handicap
Fluminense -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
63%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.77
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.21
–
First team to score
Fluminense to score first
65%
1.54
–
Half-time result
Fluminense ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Fluminense / FT Fluminense✗
40%
2.49
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.07
–
Recent results
Chapecoense-sc – last 6
LLLDDL
17 Oct
@ Botafogo
0–1
L
12 Oct
vs Atletico Paranaense
1–4
L
8 Oct
@ Vitoria
0–4
L
26 Sep
@ Atletico Nacional
1–1
D
19 Sep
@ Atletico-MG
1–1
D
12 Sep
vs Internacional
1–2
L
0.7Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Fluminense – last 6
WLLLWW
22 Oct
@ Palmeiras
1–0
W
18 Oct
vs Santos
1–2
L
15 Oct
vs Palmeiras
1–2
L
11 Oct
@ Flamengo
0–1
L
9 Oct
vs Coritiba
4–0
W
20 Sep
@ Corinthians
3–1
W
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Chapecoense-sc and Fluminense.
What is the prediction for Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense?
Our pick is Fluminense or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense?
On our numbers Chapecoense-sc have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Fluminense 60%.
How many goals will there be in Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense?
Our predicted score is Chapecoense-sc 0–2 Fluminense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense?
Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense (Serie A) kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena Condá.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
