Necaxa welcome Toluca to Estadio Victoria for a Liga MX fixture on Sunday 22 February (02:00 WAT). In the table, Necaxa are 17th, in the drop zone, on 13 points after 16 matches; Toluca are 4th (among the top four) with 27. There are 14 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Necaxa 1.0 xG, Toluca 1.9 xG – a total near 2.9. That is an open game on paper: 54% for three or more goals, 56% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Necaxa 19%, draw 22%, Toluca 59%.
Lower-risk option: Toluca or draw (81%) at 1.15.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.77.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (77%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Necaxa 1–1 Toluca. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Necaxa19%fair 5.28 · @5.30
Draw22%fair 4.45 · @3.75
Toluca59%fair 1.71 · @1.63
2.94Expected goals
1.03Necaxa xG
1.92Toluca xG
56%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
0–110%
1–210%
0–210%
1–36%
0–36%
From our goals model: Necaxa 1.0 – 1.9 Toluca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Necaxa
Toluca
Attack vs Liga MX average
-26%
+30%
Goals conceded vs average
+7%
-8%
Our expected goals here
1.09
1.96
Our own ratings from every Liga MX result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Toluca to win✓
59%
1.71
1.63
Double chance
Toluca or draw✓
81%
1.23
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.77
1.77
Draw no bet
Toluca (draw no bet)✓
76%
1.32
–
Asian handicap
Necaxa +1.5 (Asian handicap)✗
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.31
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.85
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
1.38
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
1.13
First team to score
Toluca to score first✓
62%
1.62
–
Half-time result
Toluca ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.35
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Toluca / FT Toluca✗
37%
2.74
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.07
–
Recent results
Necaxa – last 1
W
15 Feb
@ FC Juarez
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Toluca – last 1
W
14 Feb
vs Club Tijuana
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Necaxa and Toluca.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Necaxa vs Toluca?
On our numbers Necaxa have a 19% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Toluca 59%.
How many goals will there be in Necaxa vs Toluca?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Necaxa vs Toluca?
Our predicted score is Necaxa 1–1 Toluca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Necaxa vs Toluca?
Necaxa vs Toluca (Liga MX) kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Victoria.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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