Value bet: Guadalajara Chivas to win @ 3.80 – our chance 29% vs 26% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultToluca to win ✓45% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.99
Toluca vs Guadalajara Chivas: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
00:00 WAT, Sunday 1 March: Toluca v Guadalajara Chivas in the Liga MX, played at Estadio Nemesio Diez. In the table, Toluca are 4th, among the top four, on 27 points after 16 matches; Guadalajara Chivas are 3rd (among the top four) with 30. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Toluca 1.6 xG, Guadalajara Chivas 1.3 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 53%, GG 61%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Toluca 45%, draw 26%, Guadalajara Chivas 29%.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.70.
Price worth noting: Guadalajara Chivas to win @3.80 – the bookmaker implies 26%, our ratings say 29%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Toluca 1–1 Guadalajara Chivas. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Toluca45%fair 2.21 · @2.00
Draw26%fair 3.92 · @3.25
Guadalajara Chivas29%fair 3.42 · @3.80
2.86Expected goals
1.57Toluca xG
1.29Guadalajara Chivas xG
61%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
2–19%
1–09%
1–27%
0–17%
2–07%
From our goals model: Toluca 1.6 – 1.3 Guadalajara Chivas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Toluca
Guadalajara Chivas
Attack vs Liga MX average
+30%
+8%
Goals conceded vs average
-8%
-25%
Our expected goals here
1.57
1.40
Our own ratings from every Liga MX result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Toluca to win✓
45%
2.21
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.34
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
61%
1.65
1.70
Draw no bet
Toluca (draw no bet)✓
61%
1.65
–
Asian handicap
Guadalajara Chivas +1 (Asian handicap)✗
72%
1.39
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.90
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.35
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
1.12
First team to score
Toluca to score first✓
52%
1.93
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.45
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Toluca / FT Toluca✓
26%
3.82
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.99
–
Recent results
Toluca – last 2
WW
22 Feb
@ Necaxa
3–0
W
14 Feb
vs Club Tijuana
1–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Guadalajara Chivas – last 2
LW
22 Feb
@ Cruz Azul
1–2
L
15 Feb
vs Club America
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Toluca and Guadalajara Chivas.
What is the prediction for Toluca vs Guadalajara Chivas?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Toluca vs Guadalajara Chivas?
On our numbers Toluca have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Guadalajara Chivas 29%.
How many goals will there be in Toluca vs Guadalajara Chivas?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Toluca vs Guadalajara Chivas?
Our predicted score is Toluca 1–1 Guadalajara Chivas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Toluca vs Guadalajara Chivas?
Toluca vs Guadalajara Chivas (Liga MX) kicks off on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nemesio Diez.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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