On Sunday 1 March the Liga MX brings Leon against Necaxa at Estadio Leon. Kick-off: 02:06 WAT.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Leon 1.6 xG, Necaxa 1.1 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 62%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Leon 47%, draw 25%, Necaxa 29%.
GG/NG: GG (62%) at 1.62.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Leon 1–1 Necaxa. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Leon47%fair 2.14 · @2.12
Draw25%fair 4.06 · @3.45
Necaxa29%fair 3.49 · @3.25
2.77Expected goals
1.64Leon xG
1.13Necaxa xG
62%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–010%
2–110%
2–08%
0–17%
1–27%
From our goals model: Leon 1.6 – 1.1 Necaxa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Leon
Necaxa
Attack vs Liga MX average
-3%
-26%
Goals conceded vs average
-3%
+7%
Our expected goals here
1.67
1.01
Our own ratings from every Liga MX result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Leon to win✓
47%
2.14
2.12
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.63
1.62
Draw no bet
Leon (draw no bet)✓
62%
1.61
–
Asian handicap
Necaxa +1 (Asian handicap)
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.91
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.38
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
1.14
First team to score
Leon to score first✗
56%
1.80
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.43
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Leon / FT Leon✗
30%
3.35
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
10%
10.49
–
Recent results
Leon – last 2
WL
22 Feb
vs Santos Laguna
2–1
W
15 Feb
@ Monterrey
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Necaxa – last 2
LW
22 Feb
vs Toluca
0–3
L
15 Feb
@ FC Juarez
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Leon and Necaxa.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Leon vs Necaxa?
On our numbers Leon have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Necaxa 29%.
How many goals will there be in Leon vs Necaxa?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leon vs Necaxa?
Our predicted score is Leon 1–1 Necaxa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Leon vs Necaxa?
Leon vs Necaxa (Liga MX) kicks off on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 02:06 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Leon.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
