Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
2
Value bet: Cruz Azul to win @ 2.58 – our chance 43% vs 39% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultCruz Azul to win ✓43% · @2.58
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗64% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.08
Monterrey vs Cruz Azul: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
02:05 WAT, Sunday 1 March: Monterrey v Cruz Azul in the Liga MX, played at Estadio BBVA. In the table, Monterrey are 10th, lower half, on 21 points after 15 matches; Cruz Azul are 1st (leading the league) with 32.
Current form
Cruz Azul, last 3: WWW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Guadalajara Chivas, at home. The attack is flying at 3.0 goals per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Monterrey 1.5 xG, Cruz Azul 1.8 xG – a total near 3.3. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 58% and GG at 64%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Monterrey 34%, draw 23%, Cruz Azul 43%.
GG/NG: GG (64%) at 1.57.
Price worth noting: Cruz Azul to win @2.58 – the bookmaker implies 39%, our ratings say 43%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (80%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Monterrey 1–1 Cruz Azul. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Monterrey34%fair 2.98 · @2.58
Draw23%fair 4.29 · @3.40
Cruz Azul43%fair 2.32 · @2.58
3.27Expected goals
1.48Monterrey xG
1.80Cruz Azul xG
64%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
1–29%
2–17%
0–17%
2–27%
0–26%
From our goals model: Monterrey 1.5 – 1.8 Cruz Azul expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Monterrey
Cruz Azul
Attack vs Liga MX average
+5%
+40%
Goals conceded vs average
+10%
-4%
Our expected goals here
1.63
2.16
Our own ratings from every Liga MX result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cruz Azul to win✓
43%
2.32
2.58 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
64%
1.55
1.57
Draw no bet
Cruz Azul (draw no bet)✓
56%
1.78
–
Asian handicap
Monterrey +1 (Asian handicap)✗
69%
1.45
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.26
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.72
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
1.40
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
1.15
First team to score
Cruz Azul to score first✓
53%
1.89
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
38%
2.67
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cruz Azul / FT Cruz Azul✓
28%
3.62
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.08
–
Recent results
Monterrey – last 2
LW
23 Feb
@ U.N.A.M. - Pumas
0–2
L
15 Feb
vs Leon
1–0
W
0.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Cruz Azul – last 3
WWW
22 Feb
vs Guadalajara Chivas
2–1
W
15 Feb
vs Tigres UANL
2–1
W
13 Feb
vs Vancouver FC
5–0
W
3.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Monterrey and Cruz Azul.
What is the prediction for Monterrey vs Cruz Azul?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Monterrey vs Cruz Azul?
On our numbers Monterrey have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Cruz Azul 43%.
How many goals will there be in Monterrey vs Cruz Azul?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Monterrey vs Cruz Azul?
Our predicted score is Monterrey 1–1 Cruz Azul, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Monterrey vs Cruz Azul?
Monterrey vs Cruz Azul (Liga MX) kicks off on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 02:05 (West Africa Time) at Estadio BBVA.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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