Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
Picks by market
ResultToluca to win ✓53% · @1.81
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.53
U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Toluca: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
04:10 WAT, Wednesday 4 March: U.N.A.M. - Pumas v Toluca in the Liga MX, played at Estadio Olimpico Universitario. In the table, U.N.A.M. - Pumas are 11th, lower half, on 21 points after 16 matches; Toluca are 4th (among the top four) with 27.
Current form
U.N.A.M. - Pumas, last 3: DWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Club Tijuana, away. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game.
Toluca, last 3: WWW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Guadalajara Chivas, at home. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Toluca, collecting 3.0 points per game to 2.3 for U.N.A.M. - Pumas.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1.3 xG, Toluca 1.8 xG – a total near 3.1. That is an open game on paper: 57% for three or more goals, 63% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – U.N.A.M. - Pumas 24%, draw 23%, Toluca 53%.
GG/NG: GG (63%) at 1.65.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (79%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1–1 Toluca. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
U.N.A.M. - Pumas24%fair 4.14 · @3.95
Draw23%fair 4.35 · @3.80
Toluca53%fair 1.89 · @1.81
3.07Expected goals
1.29U.N.A.M. - Pumas xG
1.78Toluca xG
63%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–29%
0–18%
0–27%
2–17%
2–26%
From our goals model: U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1.3 – 1.8 Toluca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Toluca
Attack vs Liga MX average
+5%
+30%
Goals conceded vs average
-1%
-8%
Our expected goals here
1.55
1.81
Our own ratings from every Liga MX result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Toluca to win✓
53%
1.89
1.81
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
63%
1.59
1.65
Draw no bet
Toluca (draw no bet)✓
69%
1.46
–
Asian handicap
U.N.A.M. - Pumas +1 (Asian handicap)
65%
1.53
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.75
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
65%
1.54
1.42
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
81%
1.23
1.15
First team to score
Toluca to score first
55%
1.81
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
39%
2.58
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Toluca / FT Toluca✗
30%
3.33
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.53
–
Recent results
U.N.A.M. - Pumas – last 3
DWW
28 Feb
@ Club Tijuana
1–1
D
23 Feb
vs Monterrey
2–0
W
14 Feb
@ Puebla
3–2
W
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Toluca – last 3
WWW
1 Mar
vs Guadalajara Chivas
2–0
W
22 Feb
@ Necaxa
3–0
W
14 Feb
vs Club Tijuana
1–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between U.N.A.M. - Pumas and Toluca.
What is the prediction for U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Toluca?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Toluca?
On our numbers U.N.A.M. - Pumas have a 24% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Toluca 53%.
How many goals will there be in U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Toluca?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Toluca?
Our predicted score is U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1–1 Toluca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Toluca?
U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Toluca (Liga MX) kicks off on Wednesday 4 March 2026 at 04:10 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Olimpico Universitario.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Mazatlán1