Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Pachuca to win @ 1.83 – our chance 58% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultPachuca to win ✓58% · @1.83
Double chancePachuca or draw ✓81% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.77
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓10% · fair 10.14
Pachuca vs Puebla: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 8 March the Liga MX brings Pachuca against Puebla at Estadio Miguel Hidalgo. Kick-off: 02:06 WAT. In the table, Pachuca are 8th, upper half, on 22 points after 16 matches; Puebla are 13th (lower half) with 19. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Pachuca, last 4: WLWW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Necaxa, at home. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Puebla, last 4: WWLL Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Tigres UANL, at home. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Pachuca, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.5 for Puebla.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Pachuca 1.8 xG, Puebla 0.9 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 55%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Pachuca 58%, draw 23%, Puebla 19%.
Lower-risk option: Pachuca or draw (81%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.77.
Price worth noting: Pachuca to win @1.83 – the bookmaker implies 55%, our ratings say 58%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Pachuca or draw (81%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Pachuca 1–0 Puebla. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Pachuca58%fair 1.72 · @1.83
Draw23%fair 4.35 · @3.60
Puebla19%fair 5.29 · @4.10
2.77Expected goals
1.84Pachuca xG
0.93Puebla xG
55%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–012%
1–111%
2–011%
2–110%
3–07%
0–06%
From our goals model: Pachuca 1.8 – 0.9 Puebla expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Pachuca
Puebla
Attack vs Liga MX average
+17%
-19%
Goals conceded vs average
-17%
+3%
Our expected goals here
1.93
0.94
Our own ratings from every Liga MX result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Pachuca to win✓
58%
1.72
1.83 ▲
Double chance
Pachuca or draw✓
81%
1.23
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.80
1.77
Draw no bet
Pachuca (draw no bet)✓
75%
1.33
–
Asian handicap
Puebla +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
1.90
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.42
1.33
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
1.11
First team to score
Pachuca to score first
62%
1.61
–
Half-time result
Pachuca ahead at half-time✗
42%
2.36
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Pachuca / FT Pachuca✗
37%
2.71
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
10%
10.14
–
Recent results
Pachuca – last 4
WLWW
4 Mar
vs Necaxa
2–1
W
28 Feb
@ Mazatlán
0–1
L
21 Feb
@ Tigres UANL
2–1
W
15 Feb
vs Atlas
3–1
W
1.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
75%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Puebla – last 4
WWLL
5 Mar
vs Tigres UANL
3–1
W
1 Mar
@ Atletico San Luis
1–0
W
21 Feb
vs Club America
0–4
L
14 Feb
vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas
2–3
L
1.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Pachuca and Puebla.
Our pick is Pachuca or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Pachuca vs Puebla?
On our numbers Pachuca have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Puebla 19%.
How many goals will there be in Pachuca vs Puebla?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Pachuca vs Puebla?
Our predicted score is Pachuca 1–0 Puebla, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Pachuca vs Puebla?
Pachuca vs Puebla (Liga MX) kicks off on Sunday 8 March 2026 at 02:06 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Miguel Hidalgo.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
