Good pick · fair odds 1.64 · bookmaker 1.95 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.95Odds
Picks by market
ResultToluca to win ✗65% · @1.33
Double chanceToluca or draw ✓84% · @1.08
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.95
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗67% · fair 1.49
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.36
Toluca vs Atlas: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
02:00 WAT, Sunday 15 March: Toluca v Atlas in the Liga MX, played at Estadio Nemesio Diez. In the table, Toluca are 4th, among the top four, on 27 points after 16 matches; Atlas are 5th (upper half) with 27. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Toluca, last 5: LWWWW Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to San Diego, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.3 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Atlas, last 5: LWLWL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Guadalajara Chivas, at home. Goals for and against: 1.6 scored, 2.2 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Toluca, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.2 for Atlas.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Toluca 2.3 xG, Atlas 1.2 xG – a total near 3.5. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 67% and GG at 61%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Toluca 65%, draw 20%, Atlas 16%.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.95.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (61%, odds 1.95 – longer than our fair 1.64, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Toluca 2–1 Atlas. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Toluca65%fair 1.55 · @1.33
Draw20%fair 5.10 · @4.60
Atlas16%fair 6.37 · @6.50
3.45Expected goals
2.30Toluca xG
1.16Atlas xG
61%Both score
67%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–110%
1–18%
2–08%
3–17%
1–07%
3–06%
From our goals model: Toluca 2.3 – 1.2 Atlas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Toluca
Atlas
Attack vs Liga MX average
+30%
+4%
Goals conceded vs average
-8%
+14%
Our expected goals here
2.40
1.35
Our own ratings from every Liga MX result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Toluca to win✗
65%
1.55
1.33
Double chance
Toluca or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.08
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.64
1.95 ▲
Draw no bet
Toluca (draw no bet)
80%
1.24
–
Asian handicap
Toluca -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
67%
1.49
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
55%
1.83
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
73%
1.36
–
First team to score
Toluca to score first
64%
1.55
–
Half-time result
Toluca ahead at half-time✗
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Toluca / FT Toluca✗
41%
2.44
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.36
–
Recent results
Toluca – last 6
LWWWWW
12 Mar
@ San Diego
2–3
L
9 Mar
vs FC Juarez
3–1
W
4 Mar
@ U.N.A.M. - Pumas
3–2
W
1 Mar
vs Guadalajara Chivas
2–0
W
22 Feb
@ Necaxa
3–0
W
14 Feb
vs Club Tijuana
1–0
W
2.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Atlas – last 5
LWLWL
8 Mar
vs Guadalajara Chivas
1–2
L
5 Mar
vs Club Tijuana
2–1
W
28 Feb
@ FC Juarez
1–3
L
22 Feb
vs Atletico San Luis
3–2
W
15 Feb
@ Pachuca
1–3
L
1.6Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Toluca and Atlas.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.
Who will win Toluca vs Atlas?
On our numbers Toluca have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Atlas 16%.
How many goals will there be in Toluca vs Atlas?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 67% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Toluca vs Atlas?
Our predicted score is Toluca 2–1 Atlas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is Toluca vs Atlas?
Toluca vs Atlas (Liga MX) kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nemesio Diez.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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