Leon welcome Atlas to Estadio Leon for a Liga MX fixture on Sunday 5 April (02:06 WAT).
Current form
Leon, last 5: WLLLW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Atletico San Luis, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 2.5 conceded per game.
Atlas, last 5: DDLWL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Club Queretaro, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Leon 1.6 xG, Atlas 1.3 xG – a total near 3.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 53% and GG at 61%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Leon 44%, draw 25%, Atlas 32%.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.70.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Leon 1–1 Atlas. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Leon44%fair 2.29 · @2.26
Draw25%fair 4.06 · @3.35
Atlas32%fair 3.15 · @3.05
2.96Expected goals
1.63Leon xG
1.33Atlas xG
61%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
2–19%
1–08%
1–27%
0–17%
2–07%
From our goals model: Leon 1.6 – 1.3 Atlas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Leon
Atlas
Attack vs Liga MX average
-3%
+4%
Goals conceded vs average
-3%
+14%
Our expected goals here
1.79
1.42
Our own ratings from every Liga MX result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Leon to win✓
44%
2.29
2.26
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
61%
1.65
1.70
Draw no bet
Leon (draw no bet)✓
58%
1.73
–
Asian handicap
Atlas +1 (Asian handicap)✗
71%
1.41
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.89
1.91
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.46
1.33
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
84%
1.20
1.11
First team to score
Leon to score first✓
52%
1.92
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.51
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Leon / FT Leon✓
27%
3.75
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.92
–
Recent results
Leon – last 6
WLLLWW
22 Mar
@ Atletico San Luis
2–1
W
19 Mar
@ Guadalajara Chivas
0–5
L
15 Mar
vs Club Tijuana
0–3
L
7 Mar
@ Mazatlán
2–4
L
1 Mar
vs Necaxa
2–1
W
22 Feb
vs Santos Laguna
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Atlas – last 6
DDLWLW
22 Mar
vs Club Queretaro
0–0
D
15 Mar
@ Toluca
1–1
D
8 Mar
vs Guadalajara Chivas
1–2
L
5 Mar
vs Club Tijuana
2–1
W
28 Feb
@ FC Juarez
1–3
L
22 Feb
vs Atletico San Luis
3–2
W
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Leon and Atlas.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Leon vs Atlas?
On our numbers Leon have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Atlas 32%.
How many goals will there be in Leon vs Atlas?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leon vs Atlas?
Our predicted score is Leon 1–1 Atlas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Leon vs Atlas?
Leon vs Atlas (Liga MX) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 02:06 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Leon.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
