Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.77 – our chance 60% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultToluca to win ✗60% · @1.54
Double chanceToluca or draw ✗83% · @1.13
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.77
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.07
Club Queretaro vs Toluca: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
00:00 WAT, Sunday 5 April: Club Queretaro v Toluca in the Liga MX, played at Estadio La Corregidora. In the table, Club Queretaro are 12th, lower half, on 20 points after 15 matches; Toluca are 4th (among the top four) with 27.
Current form
Club Queretaro, last 5: DDLLD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Atlas, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Toluca, last 5: DWDLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Pachuca, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. 2.3 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Momentum favours Toluca, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.5 for Club Queretaro.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Club Queretaro 1.0 xG, Toluca 1.9 xG – a total near 2.9. That is an open game on paper: 55% for three or more goals, 60% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Club Queretaro 17%, draw 22%, Toluca 60%.
Lower-risk option: Toluca or draw (83%) at 1.13.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.77.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.77 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 60%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (78%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Club Queretaro 1–1 Toluca. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Club Queretaro17%fair 5.87 · @5.70
Draw22%fair 4.45 · @4.10
Toluca60%fair 1.65 · @1.54
2.93Expected goals
1.02Club Queretaro xG
1.90Toluca xG
60%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
0–110%
1–210%
0–210%
1–36%
0–36%
From our goals model: Club Queretaro 1.0 – 1.9 Toluca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Club Queretaro
Toluca
Attack vs Liga MX average
-20%
+30%
Goals conceded vs average
+4%
-8%
Our expected goals here
1.19
1.91
Our own ratings from every Liga MX result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Toluca to win✗
60%
1.65
1.54
Double chance
Toluca or draw✗
83%
1.21
1.13
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.66
1.77 ▲
Draw no bet
Toluca (draw no bet)✗
78%
1.28
–
Asian handicap
Club Queretaro +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
78%
1.29
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.80
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.42
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.21
1.15
First team to score
Toluca to score first✗
62%
1.62
–
Half-time result
Toluca ahead at half-time✗
42%
2.36
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Toluca / FT Toluca✗
36%
2.74
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.07
–
Recent results
Club Queretaro – last 6
DDLLDL
22 Mar
@ Atlas
0–0
D
16 Mar
@ Tigres UANL
0–0
D
8 Mar
vs Club America
1–2
L
5 Mar
@ Monterrey
0–4
L
28 Feb
vs Santos Laguna
2–2
D
15 Feb
@ Atletico San Luis
0–3
L
0.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Toluca – last 6
DWDLWW
23 Mar
@ Pachuca
1–1
D
19 Mar
vs San Diego
4–0
W
15 Mar
vs Atlas
1–1
D
12 Mar
@ San Diego
2–3
L
9 Mar
vs FC Juarez
3–1
W
4 Mar
@ U.N.A.M. - Pumas
3–2
W
2.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Club Queretaro and Toluca.
What is the prediction for Club Queretaro vs Toluca?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Club Queretaro vs Toluca?
On our numbers Club Queretaro have a 17% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Toluca 60%.
How many goals will there be in Club Queretaro vs Toluca?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Club Queretaro vs Toluca?
Our predicted score is Club Queretaro 1–1 Toluca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Club Queretaro vs Toluca?
Club Queretaro vs Toluca (Liga MX) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio La Corregidora.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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