Lexington vs Sacramento Republic: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Lexington welcome Sacramento Republic to Toyota Stadium for a USL Championship fixture on Sunday 15 March (00:00 WAT). In the table, Lexington are 4th, among the top four, on 48 points after 30 matches; Sacramento Republic are 2nd (among the top four) with 51. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Lexington 1.4 xG, Sacramento Republic 1.3 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 52%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Lexington 39%, draw 27%, Sacramento Republic 35%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.85.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (52%, odds 1.85). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lexington 1–1 Sacramento Republic. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Lexington39%fair 2.60 · @2.50
Draw27%fair 3.76 · @2.90
Sacramento Republic35%fair 2.87 · @2.62
2.75Expected goals
1.45Lexington xG
1.30Sacramento Republic xG
52%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–09%
2–19%
0–18%
1–28%
2–07%
From our goals model: Lexington 1.4 – 1.3 Sacramento Republic expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Lexington
Sacramento Republic
Attack vs USL Championship average
+45%
+11%
Goals conceded vs average
-0%
-27%
Our expected goals here
1.59
1.35
Our own ratings from every USL Championship result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lexington to win✗
39%
2.60
2.50
Double chance
Either team to win✗
73%
1.36
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.91
1.85
Draw no bet
Lexington (draw no bet)
52%
1.91
–
Asian handicap
Sacramento Republic +1 (Asian handicap)✓
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.93
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
–
First team to score
Lexington to score first✗
49%
2.03
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.40
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lexington / FT Lexington✗
24%
4.21
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.48
–
Recent results
Lexington – last 1
L
7 Mar
vs Louisville City
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Sacramento Republic – last 1
W
8 Mar
vs FC Tulsa
2–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lexington and Sacramento Republic.
What is the prediction for Lexington vs Sacramento Republic?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Lexington vs Sacramento Republic?
On our numbers Lexington have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Sacramento Republic 35%.
How many goals will there be in Lexington vs Sacramento Republic?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lexington vs Sacramento Republic?
Our predicted score is Lexington 1–1 Sacramento Republic, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Lexington vs Sacramento Republic?
Lexington vs Sacramento Republic (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Toyota Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
