Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
Picks by market
ResultLexington to win ✓57% · @1.80
Double chanceLexington or draw ✓79% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗62% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗81% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.22
Lexington vs Phoenix Rising: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 9 August the USL Championship brings Lexington against Phoenix Rising at Toyota Stadium. Kick-off: 00:00 WAT. In the table, Lexington are 4th, among the top four, on 48 points after 30 matches; Phoenix Rising are 8th (lower half) with 40.
Current form
Lexington, last 5: WDWLL Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Monterey Bay, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. 2.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Phoenix Rising, last 5: DDWLL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Las Vegas Lights, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Lexington, collecting 1.7 points per game to 0.8 for Phoenix Rising.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Lexington 2.1 xG, Phoenix Rising 1.2 xG – a total near 3.3. That is an open game on paper: 60% for three or more goals, 62% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Lexington 57%, draw 22%, Phoenix Rising 21%.
Lower-risk option: Lexington or draw (79%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (62%) at 1.57.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (81%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lexington 2–1 Phoenix Rising. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Lexington57%fair 1.75 · @1.80
Draw22%fair 4.52 · @3.65
Phoenix Rising21%fair 4.79 · @3.65
3.27Expected goals
2.08Lexington xG
1.19Phoenix Rising xG
62%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–110%
1–19%
2–08%
1–08%
3–17%
2–26%
From our goals model: Lexington 2.1 – 1.2 Phoenix Rising expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Lexington
Phoenix Rising
Attack vs USL Championship average
+45%
+15%
Goals conceded vs average
-0%
+14%
Our expected goals here
2.47
1.39
Our own ratings from every USL Championship result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lexington to win✓
57%
1.75
1.80
Double chance
Lexington or draw✓
79%
1.26
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
62%
1.61
1.57
Draw no bet
Lexington (draw no bet)✓
73%
1.37
–
Asian handicap
Phoenix Rising +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
65%
1.54
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
81%
1.24
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
60%
1.67
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
1.45
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
–
First team to score
Lexington to score first✓
61%
1.63
–
Half-time result
Lexington ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lexington / FT Lexington✗
37%
2.72
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.22
–
Recent results
Lexington – last 6
WDWLLW
2 Aug
vs Monterey Bay
3–2
W
26 Jul
@ FC Tulsa
0–0
D
23 Jul
vs Oakland Roots
2–0
W
16 Jul
vs New Mexico United
1–4
L
12 Jul
@ Louisville City
2–4
L
4 Jul
@ Tampa Bay Rowdies
4–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Phoenix Rising – last 6
DDWLLL
2 Aug
@ Las Vegas Lights
1–1
D
26 Jul
vs Hartford Athletic
0–0
D
19 Jul
vs Monterey Bay
3–2
W
12 Jul
@ Alta
1–2
L
5 Jul
@ Colorado Springs
1–3
L
21 Jun
vs Oakland Roots
3–4
L
1.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lexington and Phoenix Rising.
What is the prediction for Lexington vs Phoenix Rising?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Lexington vs Phoenix Rising?
On our numbers Lexington have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Phoenix Rising 21%.
How many goals will there be in Lexington vs Phoenix Rising?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lexington vs Phoenix Rising?
Our predicted score is Lexington 2–1 Phoenix Rising, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Lexington vs Phoenix Rising?
Lexington vs Phoenix Rising (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 9 August 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Toyota Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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